[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 140007
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
706 PM EST Mon Jan 13 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING...

Gale-force NE-to-E winds are occurring from 11N-13N between 73W-
78W, off the coast of Colombia, according to the latest ASCAT
pass. Sea heights are forecast to range from 14 to 20 feet in the
area. Strong high pressure centered NE of the region will
maintain gales in the south-central Caribbean into early Wed
morning. Thereafter, gales are expected to persist during the
overnight hours through Sat night. See the latest NWS Highs Seas
Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at
website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further
details.

SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC OCEAN SWELL AND HIGH SEAS...

The surface pressure gradient, with strong 1031 mb high pressure
in the Atlantic Ocean, will lead to a continuation of strong
easterly winds and large sea heights, south of 24N between 46W to
the SE Bahamas, through early Tue before winds and seas gradually
subside Tue into Wed. Windward facing islands from the southeast
Bahamas to the Leeward Islands will experience large and battering
waves through Tue. The sea heights will be 10 to 14 ft in the area
north of Puerto Rico and east of the southeast Bahamas in NE swell.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the southern coast of Liberia
near 05N09W and extends to 01N24W. The ITCZ extends from 01S29W
to 02S41W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from
03S-02N between 11W-24W. A surface trough extends from 01S27W to
03N25W with scattered showers in the vicinity of the trough axis.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A warm front extends westward from a low pressure in the Florida
Panhandle border with Alabama to the Boothville, Louisiana to
27N97W in S Texas. A surface trough is from 24N97W to 18N94W.
Satellite imagery shows overcast to broken passing showers
streaming across the northern Gulf with some isolated moderate
convection inland in Texas. Further south, no significant activity
is seen near the trough axis and to the east clear skies prevail.
ASCAT data show very well the moderate E/SE flow across much of
the basin and lighter winds in the northern coast. Moderate east
winds are seen along the Yucatan Channel and in the Bay of
Campeche.

The warm front will move inland this evening as it weakens.
Atlantic high pressure will then build westward across the
northern Gulf through Thu. A cold front will move southward into
the northerly Gulf Fri, then become stationary Fri night and
dissipate by Sat as high pressure ridging builds southward over
the eastern Gulf. This ridge will then move east of the area Sat
night as a new cold front enters the NW Gulf Sun. Mainly fresh
northerly winds are expected behind this front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

See section above for details on the Gale Warning.

Fresh to strong easterly trades prevail across much of the basin
with the exception of the NW Caribbean from 80W to the Yucatan
Channel. ASCAT data confirmed these strong winds and clearly shows
the areas under persistent gale force winds. Relatively dry air
covers the Caribbean.

Strong to near gale force northeast to east winds will continue
across most of the Caribbean through early Sat, including over the
waters from the Windward Passage to Jamaica and vicinity and waters
to the lee of Cuba. Large seas in long period NE swell will continue
across the region through Wed, and may redevelop as early as Fri.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Surface high pressure ridging extends over the western Atlantic,
anchored by a 1035 mb high near 31N60W. The latest ASCAT pass
shows strong to near gale-force NE trades from 17N-22N between
48W-75W. Fresh to strong winds are elsewhere from 06N-28N between
37W-81W. An upper-level low near 24N38W is embedded in an upper-
level trough axis that extends from 27N36W to 22N37W. Scattered
showers and tstorms are seen in the vicinity of the trough axis.
A stationary front enters the forecast area from 31N30W to 27N39W.
Further east, near the Canary Islands, a trough extends from
30N15W to 22N18W.

The strong high pressure will maintain strong trades across the
waters S of 27N through Tue, with near gale force winds expected
near the approaches to the Windward Passage. Large seas in long
period NE swell will continue over much of the region into Wed.
Winds will diminish late Wed through Thu as high pressure over the
western Atlantic weakens while slowly moving eastward. A cold
front is expected to move into the northern waters Thu afternoon
and continue southward over the area through Fri night followed
fresh to strong northerly winds and building seas.

$$
Torres
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