[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141155
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
705 AM EST Tue Jan 14 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1140 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING...

Gale-force NE-to-E winds, and sea heights ranging from 14 feet
to 20 feet, are being experienced off the coast of Colombia,
from 10N to 13N between 73W and 79W. Expect gale-force NE to E
winds, and sea heights ranging from 8 feet to 16 feet, in more
or less the same areas, until at least Wednesday night. Please
read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST: MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, the
latest OFFSHORE FORECAST: MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC, or go to the
website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, from the
NWS National Hurricane Center, for more details.

...SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC OCEAN SWELL AND HIGH SEAS...

The forecast conditions for the next 24 hours: Expect fresh to
near gale-force winds, and sea heights ranging from 10 feet to
13 feet, from 10N to 24N between 43W and 80W. Expect fresh
winds, and sea heights ranging from 8 feet to 10 feet,
elsewhere, from 06N to 30N between 35W and 79W. Please read the
latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST: MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, the latest
OFFSHORE FORECAST: MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC, or go to the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, everything from
the NWS National Hurricane Center, for more details.

A 1032 mb high pressure center is near 32N64W in the Atlantic
Ocean, about 60 nm to the ESE of Bermuda.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the Prime Meridian along 04N,
to 03N10W. The ITCZ continues from 03N10W, to 02N20W to 01N29W.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from
02N northward from 05W eastward, and within 120 nm to the north
of the ITCZ between 20W and 32W, from 01S to the Equator between
08W and 12W, and from 01S to the Equator between 35W and 40W.
Isolated moderate from the ITCZ southward between 19W and 25W.

One surface trough is along 33W/34W, from 12N southward.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from
02N to 04N between 37W and 39W. A second surface trough is along
52W/54W from 14N southward. Precipitation: isolated moderate
from 11N southward between 50W and 57W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends from the Atlantic Ocean, along 30N, to
the Florida Big Bend, to 22N94W.  SE Louisiana Panhandle/SW
Mississippi, through Louisiana, to 27N along the coast of Texas.
Upper level SW wind flow is pushing high level moisture from
Mexico to 86W in the Gulf of Mexico.

A surface trough is in the SW corner of the area, from 19N96W to
24N97.5W, along the coast of Mexico. Precipitation: broken to
overcast low level and middle level clouds, and possible
rainshowers, are from 24N southward from 94W westward.

Areas of fog will persist in the northern Gulf of Mexico through
Wednesday. A ridge will prevail in the northern Gulf of Mexico
through Thursday. A cold front will move southward into the NE
Gulf late on Thursday night. The front will become stationary on
Friday. The front will dissipate from Friday night into
Saturday, as high pressure builds in the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
Another cold front will enter the NW Gulf of Mexico on Saturday
night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The GFS model for 250 mb and water vapor satellite imagery show
a trough that extends from Hispaniola to Jamaica, to the border
of Nicaragua and Costa Rica. Precipitation: no significant deep
convective precipitation is apparent in satellite imagery.

An upper level trough passes through the Atlantic Ocean near
20N57W, to the Mona Passage, to SE Cuba. Precipitation: isolated
to widely scattered moderate covers the Caribbean Sea from 70W
eastward. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in
water vapor imagery, everywhere, in the Caribbean Sea.
Precipitation: Rainshowers are possible, in broken to overcast
low level clouds, in the trade wind flow, except for the areas
that are from 12N southward between Colombia and 78W.

24-hour rainfall totals, in inches, that are listed for the
period that ended at 14/0000 UTC, according to the PAN AMERICAN
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES, MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC,
are: 0.30 in Guadeloupe, and 0.30 in Curacao.

Strong high pressure, that is centered to the NE of the area,
will maintain gale-force winds in the south central Caribbean
Sea into early Wednesday morning. It is possible that the wind
speeds may pulse to gale-force, during the overnight hours, off
the coast of Colombia, through Saturday night. Strong winds will
continue across much of the central and western Caribbean Sea
through Saturday. Near gale-force winds are expected today in
the waters from the Windward Passage to Jamaica. Large sea
heights, in long-period NE swell, will continue in the region
through Wednesday, and persist in the central Caribbean Sea
through Saturday night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough passes through the Madeira Archipelago
32N18W cyclonic circulation center, to 24N30W, to a 20N36W
weakening cyclonic circulation center, to 20N57W, to the Mona
Passage, to SE Cuba. A stationary front passes through 32N27W to
28N36W. Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate is
within 150 nm to 240 nm on either side of the upper level trough
in the Atlantic Ocean, and from 70W eastward in the Caribbean
Sea.

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near the Madeira
Archipelago. A surface trough is along 25N20W 17N19W 09N15W.
Precipitation: isolated moderate is near the Madeira
Archipelago.

A 1032 mb high pressure center is near 32N64W in the Atlantic
Ocean, about 60 nm to the ESE of Bermuda. Surface anticyclonic
wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean to the N and NW of the
stationary front and the 32N18W 21N38W 17N70W upper level
trough.

Strong high pressure in the western Atlantic Ocean will maintain
strong trade winds in the waters that are to the south of 22N
today. Strong to Near gale-force winds are expected near the
Approaches to the Windward Passage through Wednesday. Large sea
heights, in long-period NE swell, will continue in much of the
region through Wednesday. The wind speeds will diminish, from
late Wednesday through Thursday, as the high pressure that is in
the western Atlantic Ocean weakens in the northern waters.
A cold front is expected to move into the northern waters late
on Thursday afternoon, and continue southward through Saturday
night. This cold front will be followed by fresh to strong N
winds and building sea heights, in large N to NE swell.

$$
mt
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