[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 131139
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
705 AM EST Mon Jan 13 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1120 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING...

Gale-force NE-to-E winds, and sea heights ranging from 15 feet
to 20 feet, are being experienced off the coasts of Colombia and
Panama, from 11N to 13N between 74W and 79W. Expect gale-force
NE to E winds in more or less the same areas until at least
Tuesday night, with sea heights ranging from 15 feet to 20 feet.
Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST: MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC, the latest OFFSHORE FORECAST: MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC, or go
to the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml,
from the NWS National Hurricane Center, for more details.

...SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC OCEAN SWELL AND HIGH SEAS...

The surface pressure gradient, with the strong high pressure in
the Atlantic Ocean, will lead to a continuation of strong to
near gale-force easterly winds, and large sea heights, covering
from the Caribbean Sea northward, between 35W and the Bahamas.
Windward facing islands from the central Bahamas to the Leeward
Islands will experience large and battering waves through early
next week. The sea heights will be reaching 15 feet,
particularly to the north of the Greater Antilles, and to the
north of the Leeward Islands, in E to SE swell.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the Prime Meridian along 05N,
to 04N10W, 04N19W, and 01N25W. The ITCZ continues from 01N25W,
crossing the Equator along 27W, to 04S32W, to 02S35W and 02S38W.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from
01S to 02N between 14W and the monsoon trough/ITCZ. Scattered
moderate to isolated is within 120 nm to the north of the
monsoon trough/ITCZ between 24W and 28W. Isolated moderate
elsewhere from 10N southward from 60W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A warm front passes through the Florida Big Bend, into the north
central Gulf of Mexico, to the west central Gulf of Mexico, to
the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Precipitation:
isolated moderate to the west of the line that runs from the
Florida Big Bend to the north central coast of the Yucatan
Peninsula.

The current warm front will move NW today, while weakening
gradually into a trough. Atlantic Ocean high pressure will build
westward across the northern Gulf of Mexico through Thursday.
A cold front will move southward into the NE Gulf of Mexico on
Thursday night. The front will stall and weaken, from Friday
into Friday night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The GFS model for 250 mb and water vapor satellite imagery show
a trough that extends from NW Cuba to eastern Honduras.

Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor
imagery, nearly everywhere, except for the area that is from 20N
northward from 80W westward. Precipitation: isolated moderate is
in the coastal waters of Honduras, from 18N southward from 80W
westward. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere, in broken to
overcast low level clouds, in the trade wind flow, except for
the areas that are from 13N southward between the Peninsula de
la Guajira of Colombia and 78W, and from 18N northward from 80W
westward.

24-hour rainfall totals, in inches, that are listed for the
period that ended at 13/0000 UTC, according to the PAN AMERICAN
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES, MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC,
are: 0.20 in Guadeloupe, and 0.06 in Curacao.

Strong high pressure, that is centered to the north of the area,
will maintain gale-force winds in the south central Caribbean
Sea through Tuesday night. It is possible that the wind speeds
may pulse to gale-force, off the coast of Colombia, from
Wednesday through Friday night. Strong to near gale-force winds
will persist in the forecast waters through Tuesday night. The
wind speeds will diminish gradually, from Wednesday through
Friday, to the east of 70W, as high pressure weakens in the
western Atlantic Ocean. Large sea heights, in long-period NE
swell, will continue in the region through the middle of the
week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough passes through 32N26W, to a 25N38W
cyclonic circulation center, to 22N50W, to 19N60W, 21N68W, and
to 23N72W. Precipitation: isolated moderate within 270 nm of the
center in the eastern semicircle, and from 14N to 23N between
48W and 60W, and from 17N to 23N between 60W and 73W. Upper
level cyclonic wind flow covers the area from 29N northward from
26W eastward. Precipitation: isolated moderate from 29N to 33N
between 17W and 22W.

A 1036 mb high pressure center is near 33N58W, about 370 nm to
the E of Bermuda. Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the
Atlantic Ocean to the west of the stationary front/surface
trough.

Strong high pressure in the western and central Atlantic Ocean
will maintain strong trade winds in the waters that are to the
south of 27N through Tuesday. Near gale-force winds are expected
near the Approaches to the Windward Passage. Large sea heights,
in long-period NE swell, will continue in much of the region
through Wednesday. The wind speeds will diminish, from Wednesday
through Thursday, as the high pressure weakens in the SW N
Atlantic Ocean. A cold front is expected to move into the
northern waters late on Thursday, and continue southward through
Friday night.

$$
mt
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