[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 131716
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1216 PM EST Mon Jan 13 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING...

Gale-force NE-to-E winds are occurring from 11N-13.5N between
73W-78W, off the coast of Colombia, according to the latest ASCAT
pass. Gale-force winds are expected to continue here through
early Wed morning. Sea heights are forecast to range from 14 to 20
feet in the area. See the latest NWS Highs Seas Forecast under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC OCEAN SWELL AND HIGH SEAS...

The surface pressure gradient, with strong high pressure in the
Atlantic Ocean, will lead to a continuation of strong easterly
winds and large sea heights, south of 24N between the SE Bahamas
and 50W, through early Tue before winds and seas gradually
subside Tue into Wed. Windward facing islands from the southeast
Bahamas to the Leeward Islands will experience large and battering
waves through Tue. The sea heights will be 10 to 14 ft in the
area north of Puerto Rico and east of the southeast Bahamas in NE
swell.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Liberia near 05N09W
and extends to 04N20W to 01N25W. The ITCZ extends from 00N28W to
03S32W to 03S42W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
is from 03S-03N between 11W-29W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A warm front extends from Pensacola Florida to Boothville
Louisiana to 28N95W to South Padre Island Texas to 22N97W. A
surface trough is from 22N97W to 17N93W. Scattered moderate
convection is within 75 nm N and 30 nm S of the front from 27N-30N
between 91.5W-96.5W. Similar convection is inland over southern
Louisiana, southern Mississippi and Alabama. Isolated showers are
elsewhere along the warm front and surface trough in the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Some showers are also noted near the
Florida Keys.

The warm front will continue to lift northwestward today while
gradually weakening into a trough. Atlantic high pressure will
build westward across the northern Gulf through Thu. A cold front
will move southward over the NE Gulf Thu night, then become
stationary, weaken on Fri and dissipate Fri night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Gale force winds are from 11N-13.5N between 73W-78W. See section
above for details. Near gales are elsewhere from 10N-18N between
70W-81W, and from 15N-18N between 62W-70W. Strong trades are
elsewhere. Relatively dry air covers the Caribbean, except for a
few showers in the west-central Caribbean near Honduras.

Strong high pressure centered NE of the region will maintain gale
force winds in the south-central Caribbean through Tue night.
Winds will likely continue pulsing to gale force near the coast of
Colombia Wed through Fri night. Elsewhere, strong to near gale
force winds will persist across most of the Caribbean through Tue
night, then gradually diminish Wed through Fri east of 70W as high
pressure weakens over the western Atlantic. Large seas in long-
period NE swell will continue across the region through midweek.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Surface high pressure ridging extends over the western Atlantic,
anchored by a 1037 mb high near 32N57W. The latest ASCAT pass
shows strong to near gale-force NE trades from 15N-24N between
48W-75W. Fresh to strong winds are elsewhere from 06N-28N between
37W-81W. An upper-level low near 24N38W is embedded in an upper-
level trough axis that extends from 32N20W to 24N38W to 21N54W to
22N70W. Scattered showers and tstorms are seen just north of the
Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico from 18N-22N between 66W-72W,
and from 18N-22N between 52W-60W. Isolated to scattered showers
are in between those two areas, including over Puerto Rico. A
surface trough is from 28N35W to 23N38W. Scattered showers and
tstorms are from 23N-26N between 35W-40W, enhanced by the upper-
low. The tail end of a stationary front located mostly north of
the area extends from 32N28W to 29N35W with isolated showers
possible near the front.

Strong high pressure across the western and central Atlantic will
maintain strong trades across the waters S of 27N through Tue,
with near gale force winds expected near the approaches to the
Windward Passage. Large seas in long-period NE swell will continue
over much of the region through Wed. Winds will diminish Wed
through Thu as high pressure over the western Atlantic weakens
while slowly moving eastward. A cold front is expected to move
into the northern waters Thu evening and continue southward over
the area through Fri night followed fresh to strong northerly
winds and building seas.

$$
Hagen
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net