[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 130525
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
105 AM EST Mon Jan 13 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0510 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING...

Gale-force NE-to-E winds, and sea heights ranging from 14 feet
to 18 feet, are being experienced off the coast of Colombia,
from 11N to 13N between 74W and 76W. Expect gale-force NE to E
winds in more or less the same areas until at least Tuesday
night, with sea heights ranging from 15 feet to 20 feet. Please
read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST: MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, the
latest OFFSHORE FORECAST: MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC, or go to the
website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, from the
NWS National Hurricane Center, for more details.

...SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC OCEAN SWELL AND HIGH SEAS...

The surface pressure gradient, with the strong high pressure in
the Atlantic Ocean, will lead to a continuation of strong to
near gale-force easterly winds, and large sea heights, covering
from the Caribbean Sea northward, between 35W and the Bahamas.
Windward facing islands from the central Bahamas to the Leeward
Islands will experience large and battering waves through early
next week. The sea heights will be reaching 14 feet,
particularly to the north of Puerto Rico and to the north of the
Leeward Islands, in E to SE swell.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of
Liberia near 05N10W, to 05N12W. The ITCZ continues from 05N12W
to 04N14W, 04N18W, crossing the Equator along 27W, to 01S33W, to
the Equator along 40W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate
to isolated strong from 02N southward between 17W and 24W.
Isolated moderate elsewhere from the ITCZ southward and eastward
to 10W. Isolated moderate elsewhere from 08N southward between
24W and 53W, with respect to the northern side of the monsoon
trough/ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A warm front passes through the Florida Big Bend, into the north
central Gulf of Mexico, to the west central Gulf of Mexico, to
the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Precipitation:
isolated moderate to the west and northwest of the line that
runs from the Florida west coast near 26N82W, to the NW corner
of the Yucatan Peninsula.

The current warm front will weaken overnight, and be positioned
from central Louisiana to offshore Tampico Mexico on Monday.
Atlantic Ocean high pressure will build westward across the
northern Gulf of Mexico through Thursday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The GFS model for 250 mb and water vapor satellite imagery show
a trough that extends from NW Cuba to eastern Honduras.

Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor
imagery, nearly everywhere, except to the NW of the line that
runs from the coast of Cuba near 21N79W to the northern coast of
Belize. Precipitation: isolated moderate, in broken to overcast
low level clouds, in the trade wind flow, except for the areas
that are from 13N southward between the Peninsula de la Guajira
of Colombia and 79W, and within 120 nm on either side of the
line that runs from the Yucatan Channel, to 19N82W, to Jamaica.

24-hour rainfall totals, in inches, that are listed for the
period that ended at 13/0000 UTC, according to the PAN AMERICAN
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES, MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC,
are: 0.20 in Guadeloupe, and 0.06 in Curacao.

Strong high pressure, that is centered to the north of the area,
will maintain gale-force winds in the south central Caribbean
Sea through Tuesday night. It is possible that the wind speeds
may pulse to gale-force, off the coast of Colombia, from
Wednesday through Friday night. Strong to near gale-force winds
will persist in the forecast waters through Tuesday night. The
wind speeds will diminish gradually, as high pressure weakens in
the western Atlantic Ocean. Large sea heights, in long-period NE
swell, will continue in the region through at least Wednesday
night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough passes through 32N28W, to a 27N36W
cyclonic circulation center, to 24N48W, to a 21N54W cyclonic
circulation center, to 21N65W, and to 22N69W. Precipitation:
isolated moderate from 18N to 24N between 40W and 65W. A
stationary front passes through 32N29W to 28N32W. A surface
trough is along 28N34W 20N33W. Precipitation: widely scattered
moderate from 24N to 27N between 32W and 37W.

A 1040 mb high pressure center is near 34N52W, about 625 nm to
the E of Bermuda. Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the
Atlantic Ocean to the west of the stationary front/surface
trough.

Strong high pressure in the western and central Atlantic Ocean
will maintain strong trade winds in the waters that are to the
south of 27N through Tuesday. Near gale-force winds are expected
near the Approaches to the Windward Passage. Large sea heights,
in long-period NE swell, will continue in much of the region
through Wednesday. The wind speeds will diminish during the
middle of the week as the high pressure weakens in the SW N
Atlantic Ocean. A cold front is expected to move into the
northern waters on Thursday afternoon.

$$
mt
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