[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 130000
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 PM EST Sun Jan 12 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2320 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING...

Gale-force E winds, and sea heights ranging from 14 feet to 22
feet, are being experienced off the coast of Colombia, from 11N to
15N between 73W and 79W. Gale-force NE to E winds are forecast to
continue until at least Monday night, with sea heights ranging
from 14 feet to 18 feet. See latest High Seas Forecast issued by
the National Weather Service under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for details.

...SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC OCEAN SWELL AND HIGH SEAS...

The surface pressure gradient, with the strong high pressure in
the Atlantic Ocean, will lead to a continuation of strong to
near gale-force easterly winds, and large sea heights, covering
from the Caribbean Sea northward, between 35W and the Bahamas.
Windward facing islands from the central Bahamas to the Leeward
Islands will experience large and battering waves through early
next week. The sea heights will be reaching 17 feet, particularly
to the north of Puerto Rico and to the north of the Leeward Islands,
in E to SE swell.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough remains inland across Africa. The ITCZ begins
near the coast of Liberia near 06N10W and continues to 01N26W to
02N44W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 00N-07N between
18W-39W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 12/2100 UTC, the front was stalled in the Bay of Campeche
and the western Gulf from 19N94W to 25N93W, then transitions to a
warm front from 25N93W to the coast of the western Florida
Panhandle near 30N86W. Scattered showers are seen across the Gulf,
especially on the eastern side of the front. The latest
scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate winds across most of
the Gulf, with strong northerly winds in the SW Bay of Campeche.
Moderate to fresh easterly winds are noted in the SE Gulf off the
NW Cuban coast.

The stationary/warm front will weaken tonight and be positioned
from Central Louisiana to offshore Tampico Mexico by Monday.
Fresh winds near Veracruz Mexico this afternoon and evening will
diminish to moderate tonight as the front approaches the area.
Atlantic high pressure will build westward across the northern
Gulf through Thursday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

See Special Features above for additional information on the
Gale Warnings in the Caribbean Sea.

An upper level ridge continues to dominate the area with an upper
level trough digging across the SW Atlantic into the Greater
Antilles, east of Hispaniola, to the Lesser Antilles. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted north of the Leeward
Islands. Otherwise, scattered showers are seen across the eastern
half of the Caribbean. Scattered showers are also noted near the
Yucatan and Belizean coast. The latest scatterometer depicts fresh
to strong easterly winds across the basin with gale force winds
north of Colombia.

Strong high pressure centered north of the area will maintain
gale force winds in the south-central Caribbean through Tuesday
night. Winds are likely to pulse to gales again Wednesday and
Thursday nights. Elsewhere, strong to near gale force winds will
persist across the forecast waters through Tuesday, then
gradually diminish as high pressure weakens over the western
Atlantic. Large seas in long period NE swell will continue across
the region through midweek.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An elongated stretches from the eastern Atlantic to the SW
Atlantic near the Greater and Lesser Antilles. At the surface,
the stationary front is noted from 31N30W to 29N32W. A surface
trough is analyzed from 28N32W to 21N32W and is associated with a
closed upper level low within the elongated trough. Scattered
moderate convection is near this trough from 27N-30N between
32W-36W. The latest scatterometer data depicts strong to near
gale-force winds from 21N-25N between 36W-69W.

Strong high pressure across the western and central Atlantic will
maintain strong trades across the waters S of 27N through Tuesday,
with near gale force winds expected near the Approaches to the
Windward Passage. Large seas in long-period NE swell will continue
over much of the region through Wednesday. Winds will diminish
midweek as high pressure weakens over the SW N Atlantic. A cold
front is expected to move into the northern waters late Thursday
afternoon and night.

$$
AKR
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