[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111803
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
103 PM EST Sat Jan 11 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING...

Gale-force E winds, and sea heights ranging from 12 feet to 19
feet, are being experienced off the coasts of Colombia, from 10N
to 16 N between 69W and 80W. Latest ASCAT data indicates gale
force winds are present from 11N-13N between 73W-76W. Expect
gale-force E winds to continue through Sunday night. See latest
High Seas Forecast issued by the National Weather Service under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for details.

...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...

As of 11/1500 UTC, cold front is along a line from 29N90W to
20N96W. Expect NW gale-force winds, and sea heights to 8 to 10
ft, N of 20N W of 94W. Gale-force wind conditions are forecast to
continue until at least Saturday night. Due to strong southerly
flow across the northeast Gulf waters, a short live Gale Warning
has been issued by the local National Weather Service in Mobile
and Tallahassee. Refer to the their local Coastal Water Forecast
for additional information on the Gale Warning. Conditions are
forecast to improve by this evening. See latest High Seas Forecast
issued by the National Weather Service under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for details.

...SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC OCEAN SWELL AND HIGH SEAS...

The surface pressure gradient, with the strong 1043 mb high
pressure in the Atlantic Ocean centered near 35N55W, will lead
to a continuation of strong to near gale-force NE-E winds, and
large sea heights. Latest ASCAT shows the strong to near gale-
force winds covering much of the basin extending from 60N to 30N
between 41W to the Bahamas near 75W. The fresh to strong winds
are also observed in the USVI and across PR. The windward facing
islands from the central Bahamas to the Leeward Islands will
experience large and battering waves through early next week. The
sea heights will be reaching 17 feet, particularly to the north
of Puerto Rico and to the north of the Leeward Islands, in E to
SE swell.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia,
to 06N10W to 02N18W. The ITCZ continues from 02N18W to 00N30W and
00N44W. Scattered showers extend from 00-06N between 07W-28W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

See Special Features above for additional information on the
Gale Warnings in the Gulf of Mexico.

As of 11/1500 UTC, cold front is along a line from 29N90W to
20N96W to a 1017 mb low. A secondary front has moved into the
northern Gulf waters from 25N97W to 29N93W. A squall line is 40
nm SE of the main front from 25N94W to 29N91W. This vigorous
squall line consists of numerous strong to severe thunderstorms
just ahead of the front north of 24N. Scattered moderate to strong
convection from 25N93W north to 30N88W. ASCAT data shows fresh to
strong SE flow east of 90W.

The squall line will continue racing eastward across the north-
central and NE Gulf through this evening, while the front reaches
from the western Florida panhandle to the central Bay of Campeche.
The front will become stationary and weaken Sun, then drift
northward as a frontal trough through Mon. Gale-force northwest to
north winds are expected west of the front near the coast of
Veracruz Mexico this afternoon and into tonight. Atlantic high
pressure will build westward across the area Mon through Wed night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warning
currently in effect for the south-central Caribbean.

The latest scatterometer data depicts a large area of strong to
near gale-force easterly winds across the central and eastern
Caribbean, with gale-force winds north of Colombia. Fresh to
strong easterly winds are in the western Caribbean.

Strong high pressure north of the area will allow for strong to
near gale force winds to continue across the entire area through
Tue. Gale force winds are expected to continue in the south-
central Caribbean through Tue night, then pulse to gale again Wed
night. Large seas will continue across the region through Wed
night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the swells and high
seas for the the Atlantic basin.

The surface pressure gradient, with the strong 1043 mb high
pressure in the Atlantic Ocean centered near 35N55W, will
continue to keep strong to near gale-force NE-E winds across
the basin. Latest ASCAT shows the strong to near gale-force
winds covering much of the basin from 60N to 30N between 41W
to the Bahamas near 75W. Sea heights will be reaching 17 feet,
particularly to the north of Puerto Rico and to the north of the
Leeward Islands, in E to SE swell. A cold front enters the
forecast area from 30N33W to 23N52W to 21N61W, then stalls to
23N72W. Strong to near gale force winds are seen north of the
front from 22N-25N between 42W-70W. Scattered moderate convection
is in the vicinity of the front.

Strong high pressure across the western and central Atlantic will
continue through early Tue, then shift eastward and weaken through
Wed night. Strong trades, gusty at times, will remain in place
with potentially hazardous seas through Sun night, then fresh to
strong trades will be confined to the southern waters through Wed
night. Large seas will continue over most of the forecast waters
through Wed night.

$$

Torres
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