[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111157
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
705 AM EST Sat Jan 11 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1140 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING...

Gale-force NE to E winds, and sea heights ranging from 12 feet
to 19 feet, are being experienced off the coasts of Colombia and
Venezuela, from 10N to 16 N between 69W and 80W. Expect gale-
force NE to E winds in more or less the same areas until at
least Sunday night. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST:
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, the latest OFFSHORE FORECAST:
MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC, or go to the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, from the NWS
National Hurricane Center, for more details.

...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...

A cold front is along the line from 29N96W TO 27N98W. The 12-
hour forecast position of the cold front is from 29N90W to
21N96W to 19N95W. Expect NW gale-force winds, and sea heights to
8 feet, S of 20N W of the cold front. The gale-force wind
conditions are forecast to continue until at least Saturday
night. Please read the HIGH SEAS FORECAST, MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC, the latest OFFSHORE FORECAST, MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC, or go
to the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml,
from the NWS National Hurricane Center, for more details.

...SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC OCEAN SWELL AND HIGH SEAS...

The surface pressure gradient, with the strong high pressure in
the Atlantic Ocean, will lead to a continuation of strong to
near gale-force easterly winds, and large sea heights, covering
from the Caribbean Sea northward, between 36W and the Bahamas.
Windward facing islands from the central Bahamas to the Leeward
Islands will experience large and battering waves through early
next week. The sea heights will be reaching 17 feet,
particularly to the north of Puerto Rico and to the north of the
Leeward Islands, in E to SE swell.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border sections of
Sierra Leone and Liberia, to 07N13W, to 03N18W. The ITCZ
continues from 03N18W to 01N22W and 01N28W, to the Equator along
38W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
from 03N southward between 06W and 10W. Isolated moderate is
elsewhere from the monsoon trough and the ITCZ southward.
Isolated moderate is within 210 nm to the north of the ITCZ
between 18W and 30W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A vigorous deep layer trough is moving through the central
U.S.A. The trough is supporting a cold front that is partially
inland in Texas, and partially in the waters just off the coast
of Texas. The front is along 30N95W, to 28N96.5W in the water,
curving beyond 26N98.5W, into Mexico. Precipitation: numerous
strong is within 60 nm on either side of the line that extends
from 26N95W to 29N92W beyond 30N92W in south central coastal
Louisiana. Gale-force NW winds are expected to the west of the
front near the coast of Veracruz Mexico later today.

The current strong cold front will be moving off the Texas coast
during the day today. The front will extend from the Florida Big
Bend to the Bay of Campeche tonight. The front will stall and
weaken on Sunday. The front will drift northward as a frontal
trough through Monday. Gale-force NW winds are expected to the
west of the front, near the coast of Veracruz Mexico, later
today.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The GFS model for 250 mb and water vapor satellite imagery show
a trough that passes through the Yucatan Channel, through
Honduras and Nicaragua, to 06N83W in the eastern Pacific Ocean.
Precipitation: no significant deep convective precipitation is
apparent in satellite imagery.

Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor
imagery, from 80W eastward.

Strong high pressure, to the N of the area, will allow strong to
near gale-force winds to continue across the entire area through
Tuesday. Gale-force winds are expected to continue in the south-
central Caribbean Sea through Tuesday night, and then pulse to
gale-force again on Wednesday night. Large sea heights will
continue across the region through Wednesday night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 32N34W to 25N50W to 23N64W. The
front becomes dissipating stationary from 23N64W to 24N73W.
Precipitation: isolated moderate within 75 nm on either side of
the line from 22N51W to 26N43W to 31N39W.

A 1042 mb high pressure center is near 36N58W. Surface
anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean to the north
and northwest of the cold front.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from
28N southward between the Cabo Verde Islands and 60W. This wind
flow is related to an upper level cyclonic circulation center
that is near 22N36W, and a trough that extends southwestward
from the 22N36W cyclonic center. Broken to overcast multilayered
moisture is spiraling away from the upper level cyclonic center,
and it is within 400 nm to the north of the center, within 600
nm to the east of the center, and within 700 nm to the southeast
of the center. Rainshowers are possible in the areas of the
multilayered moisture.

Strong high pressure will prevail in the western and central
Atlantic Ocean through Tuesday. Strong trade winds are expected
across the entire region through Sunday night. Strong winds will
remain across southern waters through Tuesday night. Large sea
heights will continue in the region through Wednesday.

$$
mt
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net