[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 110603
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
105 AM EST Sat Jan 11 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0540 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING...

Gale-force easterly winds, and sea heights ranging from 14 feet
to 16 feet, are being experienced off the coast of Colombia,
from 11N to 12N between 70W and 72W. Expect gale-force NE to E
winds in the Gulf of Venezuela also. The area of gale-force
winds off the coast of Colombia will expand in 24 hours, in
order to cover the areas from 11N to 14N between 74W and 77W.
Expect the sea heights to range from 13 feet to 18 feet. The 48-
hour forecast will consist of NE to E gale-force winds, and sea
heights ranging from 12 feet to 17 feet, from 11N to 13N between
74W and 76W. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST:
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, the latest OFFSHORE FORECAST:
MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC, or go to the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, from the NWS
National Hurricane Center, for more details.

...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...

The next cold front will enter the NW Gulf of Mexico on Saturday
morning. Expect gale-force SE to S winds, and sea heights
ranging from 8 feet to 10 feet, from 23N to 29N between 91W and
98W. NW gale-force winds are forecast to start to the west and
northwest of the cold front around the middle of the day, today,
on Saturday. Please read the HIGH SEAS FORECAST,
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, the latest OFFSHORE FORECAST,
MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC, or go to the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, from the NWS
National Hurricane Center, for more details.

...SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC OCEAN SWELL AND HIGH SEAS...

The pressure gradient resulting from the strong high pressure in
the Atlantic Ocean will lead to a continuation of strong to near
gale-force easterly winds, and very large sea heights, in a
large area. The area will cover from the Caribbean Sea to 28N,
between 50W and the Bahamas. Windward facing islands from the
central Bahamas to the Leeward Islands will experience large and
battering waves through early next week. The sea heights will be
reaching 16 feet, particularly to the north of Puerto Rico and
to the north of the Leeward Islands, in E to SE swell.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of
Liberia near 06N10W, to 01N21W. The ITCZ continues from 01N21W
to 01N37W, crossing the Equator along 39W, and reaching the
coast of Brazil near 03S43W. Precipitation: Isolated moderate to
the south of the monsoon trough. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong within 120 nm to 180 nm to the north of the ITCZ between
22W and 26W. Isolated moderate elsewhere from 08N southward
between 30W and 45W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A vigorous deep layer trough is moving through the central
U.S.A. The trough is supporting a cold front that still is in
Texas. The cold front is forecast to reach the NW Gulf of Mexico
this morning on Saturday. SE to S gale-force winds are in the
area that is from 23N to 29N between 91W and 98W. The gale-force
winds are forecast to last until the middle of the day on
Saturday. NW gale-force winds are forecast to start to the west
and northwest of the cold front around the middle of the day,
today, on Saturday. Precipitation: isolated moderate is from 28N
northward between 86W and 89W. Broken to overcast multilayered
clouds and isolated moderate are to the NW of the line that
extends from the coast of SE Louisiana to the coast of Mexico
near 22N97.5W.

SE gale-force winds are in advance of the strong cold front,
that will be entering the NW Gulf of Mexico on Saturday morning.
The front will extend from the Florida Big Bend to the Bay of
Campeche on Saturday night. The front will stall and weaken on
Sunday. The front will drift northward through Monday. Gale-
force NW winds are expected to the west of the front off the
coast of Veracruz Mexico on Saturday afternoon. A surface
trough, the remnants of the front, will prevail across the SW
part of the basin on Sunday,  before dissipating early on
Monday. Return flow will be established across the basin, and it
will continue through the middle of the week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The GFS model for 250 mb and water vapor satellite imagery show
a trough along 88W, from the Yucatan Peninsula beyond El
Salvador, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation:
isolated moderate from 18N northward from 83W westward, in the
NW corner of the Caribbean Sea.

Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor
imagery, from 80W eastward.

Very strong high pressure, to the N of the area, will support
the continuation of strong to near gale-force winds across most
of the basin through late Tuesday. The wind speeds will start to
decrease and focus toward the central part of the basin after
Tuesday. The sea heights are expected to build to 15 feet, or
even higher, during the times of the peak wind speeds. Gale
force winds will pulse at night and during the morning hours
through Wednesday, off the coast of Colombia. Gale-force winds
in the Gulf of Venezuela will decrease to near gale-force
tonight. The northern and central sections of the tropical
Atlantic Ocean will experience strong winds and building seas
through Tuesday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 32N36W to 26N50W to 23N64W. The
front becomes stationary from 23N64W to 24N73W. A surface trough
is within 100 nm to 300 nm to the southeast of the cold front,
from NE to SW, between 44W and 48W. Precipitation: isolated
moderate within 60 nm on either side of the cold front from 27N
northward. Isolated moderate is within 90 nm to the west of the
surface trough from 22N to 25N.

A 1043 mb high pressure center is near 37N59W. Surface
anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean to the north
and northwest of the cold front.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from
26N southward between the Cabo Verde Islands and 60W. This wind
flow is related to an upper level cyclonic circulation center
that is near 20N38W, and a trough that extends southwestward
from the 20N38W cyclonic center. Broken to overcast multilayered
moisture is spreading toward the east and northeast, within 500
nm to 700 nm away from the trough and cyclonic center.
Rainshowers are possible in the areas of the multilayered
moisture.

Strong high pressure will prevail through the middle of the
upcoming week. It will support fresh to strong winds across most
of the area through Sunday. The wind speeds across the northern
waters are expected to diminish after Sunday. Strong winds will
prevail across the southern waters through Tuesday evening.
Large sea heights are expected in the region through the
weekend.

$$
mt
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net