[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 102352
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
652 PM EST Fri Jan 10 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...

A 1041 mb surface high is centered near 37N62W. The high is
resulting in gale-force winds off the coast of Colombia from 11N-
14N between 73W-78W. The gales will continue through the weekend.
An altimeter passed over the area Fri morning around 10/1425 UTC
and measured wave heights of 15 to 16 ft from 11N-13N near 75W-
77W. Seas are forecast to continue in the 16 to 21 ft range
through Saturday then 15 to 19 ft on Sun. See the latest High Seas
Forecast issued by the National Weather Service under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for details.

GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...

The next cold front will enter the NW Gulf of Mexico on Saturday
morning. As the front approaches, gale-force SE to S winds are
expected off the Texas coast this evening from 26N-29N between
94W-96W. Seas will range from 10 to 13 ft. Behind the front, gale-
force NW winds are expected off the coast of Veracruz by Saturday
afternoon and continue through Saturday evening. Seas will range
from 8 to 10 ft. See the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Weather Service under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC for details.

SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC SWELL AND HIGH SEAS...

The pressure gradient resulting from the strong high pressure in
the Atlantic will lead to a continuation of strong to near gale
force easterly winds and very large seas over a large area, from
the Caribbean Sea to 28N, between 50W and the Bahamas. Windward
facing islands from the central Bahamas to the Leeward Islands
will experience large and battering waves through early next week.
Seas will be up to 16 ft particularly north of Puerto Rico and
north of the Leeward Islands in E to SE swell.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 06N10W
to 04N15W. The ITCZ extends from 04N15W to 00N27W to the coast of
Brazil near 03S44W. Isolated moderate convection is noted along
the ITCZ from 01S-04N between 19W-28W, and from 05S-08N between
31W-42W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

See the section above for details on the Gale Warning currently in
effect.

A large low pressure system moving eastward across the central
U.S. extends a cold front across west-central Texas and northern
Mexico. Ahead of the front, severe weather is occurring over
northeastern and central Texas. Scattered showers are also seen
over southern Louisiana, southern Mississippi and over the north-
central Gulf of Mexico north of 28N between 86W-89W. 20 to 30 kt
SE to S winds are occurring over the western Gulf of Mexico.
Strong SE winds are also over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Friday
morning's ASCAT pass showed near gale-force east winds in the
Florida Straits. Farther south, scattered tstorms seen over the
western Yucatan Peninsula are associated with a trough. Some of
these tstorms are possible over the eastern Bay of Campeche this
evening.

SE to S winds will reach gale-force tonight ahead of a strong
cold front entering the NW Gulf of Mexico Sat morning. The front
will extend from the Florida Big Bend to the Bay of Campeche Sat
night, stall and weaken Sun, then drift northward through Mon.
Gale-force NW winds are expected west of the front off the coast
of Veracruz Mexico Sat afternoon and evening. A surface trough,
the remnants of the front, will prevail across the SW basin Sun
before dissipating early on Mon. Return flow will establish across
the basin afterwards, continuing through the middle of the week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warning
currently in effect for the south-central Caribbean.

Isolated showers and tstorms are over the northwestern Caribbean
Sea from Honduras to the Yucatan Channel between Jamaica and the
Yucatan Peninsula due to leftover moisture from the surface
trough that is now located over the western Yucatan Peninsula.
Strong high pressure over the western Atlantic is causing strong
to near gale-force trades across the entire basin. Gale-force
winds are near the coast of Colombia. Wave heights of 12-18 ft
cover the area from 10N-18N between 65W-83W.

A tight pressure gradient between very strong high pressure N of
the area and low pressure over Colombia will continue to support
strong to near gale force winds across most of the basin through
late Tue when the winds will start to decrease. With these winds,
sea heights to 15 ft are expected to continue, higher in the
south-central to southwest basin. Off the coast of Colombia, gale
force winds will persist through at least Tuesday morning.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Strong to near gale force trades continue over the Florida
Straits, Bahamas and most of the SW N Atlantic, from 12N-29N
between 50W-82W, due to a 1041 mb high centered north of the area.
To the east, a cold front extends from 32N39W to 26N50W to
24N62W, then is stationary from that point to 23N71W. Showers are
seen within 90 nm of the front. A surface trough is analyzed from
28N44W to 20N48W. No significant convection is noted along the
trough.

Strong high pressure will prevail through the middle of the
upcoming week supporting a continuation of strong winds across
most of the area through Sun. Winds across the northern waters are
expected to diminish afterwards. Strong winds will prevail across
the southern waters through Tue evening. Large seas are expected
over the region through the weekend.

$$
Hagen
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