[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101747
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1247 PM EST Fri Jan 10 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1720 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...

A 1042 mb surface Arctic high is centered near 38N65W. As the
high slides eastward across the Atlantic today, this will result
in a continuation of strong to gale-force winds off the coast of
Colombia from 11N-14N between 73W-79W. These conditions will
continue through the weekend, with seas ranging from 12 to 23 ft
starting Saturday morning. See the latest High Seas Forecast
issued by the National Weather Service under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for details.

GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...

The next cold front will enter the NW Gulf of Mexico on Saturday
morning, then extend from the Florida Big Bend to the Bay of
Campeche by Sat night. As the front approaches, gale-force SE
winds are expected within 90 nm of the Texas coast starting
this evening. Behind the front, gale-force NW winds are expected
off the coast of Veracruz by Saturday afternoon and continue
through early Sunday. Seas will range 8 to 10 ft. See the latest
High Seas Forecast issued by the National Weather Service under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for details.

SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC SWELL...

The pressure gradient resulting from the Arctic high pressure in
the Atlantic will lead to strong easterly winds and large seas.
Windward facing islands from the southern Bahamas to the Leeward
Islands will experience large and battering waves through early
next week. Seas will be up to 16 ft particularly from Puerto Rico
to the Leeward Islands in E to SE swell.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough emerges off the coast of Liberia from 06N11W
and extends to 03N15W. The ITCZ extends from 03N15W to 01N29W to
the coast of Brazil near 03S39W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted along the ITCZ from 01S-05N between 18W-40W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

See the section above for details on the Gale Warning currently in
effect.

Surface ridging prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1042 mb
high centered northeast of the area. A large upper- level trough
over the west- central U.S. is creating upper- level diffluence
over portions of Louisiana, east Texas, northern Mexico and the NW
Gulf of Mexico. This is leading to scattered showers over the NW
Gulf of Mexico. In addition, scattered showers and thunderstorms
are also noted in the central Gulf near the Louisiana and
Mississippi coasts. The latest scatterometer data depicts fresh
to strong easterly winds across the eastern half of the basin. In
the western Gulf, fresh to strong SE winds are noted especially
off the coast of Texas. Moderate to fresh winds are across the
central and southern Gulf.

SE winds will reach gale-force tonight ahead of a strong cold
front entering the NW Gulf of Mexico Saturday morning. The front
will extend from the Florida Big Bend to the Bay of Campeche
Saturday night, stall and weaken Sunday, then drift northward
through Monday. Gale- force NW winds are expected west of the
front off the coast of Veracruz Mexico Saturday afternoon.


CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warning
currently in effect for the south-central Caribbean.

A surface trough extends across the Yucatan Peninsula from 20N87W
to 16N89W with scattered showers within 100 nm of this feature.
The remainder of the basin is relatively dry due to the influence
of mid-to- upper level ridging. The latest scatterometer data
depicts a large area of strong to near gale-force easterly winds
across the central and eastern Caribbean, with gale-force winds
north of Colombia. Fresh to strong easterly winds are in the
western Caribbean.

With high pressure prevailing north of the region, widespread
strong tradewinds and large seas can be expected. Gales will
persist off the Colombian coast through at least Tuesday. For
windward facing islands, large swell will lead to large and
battering waves through early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1042 mb high centered north of the area is causing strong to
near-gale force winds E winds over the Florida Straits and the
Bahamas. The latest ASCAT pass depicts fresh to strong winds west
of 60W. Similar conditions should continue south of 29N between
48W-80W through the weekend before winds gradually diminish by
early next week. To the east, a cold front extends from 31N43W to
24N60W, then becomes stationary from that point to 23N74W. Showers
are seen within 100 nm of the front. A surface trough is analyzed
from 31N39W to 21N49W. No significant convection is noted along
the trough.

Strong high pressure centered north of the area will
build south leading to strong easterly winds and large seas.
Windward facing islands will experience large and battering waves
into early next week.on.

$$
AKR
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