[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 112358
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
658 PM EST Sat Jan 11 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2320 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING...

Gale-force E winds with seas ranging from 12 feet to 20 feet are
ongoing off the coasts of Colombia, from 10N to 16 N between 69W
and 80W. Latest ASCAT data indicates gale force winds are present
from 11N-14N between 73W-77W. Expect gale- force E winds to
continue through Tuesday night. See latest High Seas Forecast
issued by the National Weather Service under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for details.

...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...

As of 11/2100 UTC, the cold front exits the Mississippi/Louisiana
coast near 30N89W and extends south to 23N93W to the coast of
Mexico near 20N96W. A squall line is noted from the western
Florida Panhandle into the northeast Gulf from 30N87W to 28N88W.
Showers are seen across the rest of the primary cold front. Gale-
force wind conditions are ongoing near Veracruz and will continue
until Saturday night. See latest High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Weather Service under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC for details.


...SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC OCEAN SWELL AND HIGH SEAS...

The surface pressure gradient, with the strong 1041 mb high
pressure in the Atlantic Ocean centered near 36N54W, will lead to
a continuation of strong to near gale-force NE-E winds, and large
sea heights. Latest ASCAT shows the strong to near gale- force
winds covering much of the basin extending from 60N to 30N between
41W to the Bahamas near 75W. The strong winds are also observed
in the USVI and across PR. The windward facing islands from the
central Bahamas to the Leeward Islands will experience large and
battering waves through early next week. The sea heights will be
reaching 17 feet, particularly to the north of Puerto Rico and to
the north of the Leeward Islands, in E to SE swell.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra
Leone near 07N12W to 05N15W. The ITCZ continues from 05N15W to
01N28W to 00N44W. Scattered showers with thunderstorms are within
100 nm between 13W-34W.


GULF OF MEXICO...

See Special Features above for additional information on the
Gale Warnings in the Gulf of Mexico including position of the cold
front.

As of 11/2100 UTC, the secondary 30N92W to 26N96W with showers
along it. The vigorous squall line in the eastern Gulf consists
of numerous strong to severe thunderstorms just ahead of the front
north of 24N. A 1014 low is in the Bay of Campeche near 19N94W
with a trough along it from 21N94W to 18N94W. The latest
scatterometer data depicts strong to near gale-force southeasterly
winds ahead of the front with strong to near gale-force
northwesterly winds behind the primary cold front. Moderate to
fresh winds are in the Bay of Campeche with gale-force winds near
Veracruz.

The cold front will move east into the eastern Gulf of Mexico
tonight, with the associated squall line weakening and
dissipating. The cold front will become stationary on Sunday.
Gales are expected west of the front near Veracruz through
tonight. Atlantic high pressure will build westward across the
area Mon through Wednesday night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warning
currently in effect for the south-central Caribbean.

With strong ridging stretching across the Caribbean, no
significant convection is noted at this time. The latest
scatterometer data depicts a large area of strong to near gale-
force easterly winds across the central Caribbean, with gale-
force winds north of Colombia. Strong easterly winds are also seen
in the eastern Caribbean. Fresh to strong easterly winds are in
the western Caribbean.

Strong high pressure north of the area will allow for strong to
near gale force winds to continue across the entire area through
Tuesday. Gale force winds are expected to continue in the south-
central Caribbean through Tuesday night, then pulse to gale again
Wednesday night. Large seas will continue across the region
through Wednesday night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the swells and high
seas for the the Atlantic basin.

The surface pressure gradient, with the strong 1043 mb high
pressure in the Atlantic Ocean will continue to keep strong to
near gale-force NE-E winds across the basin. Latest scatterometer
data depicts strong to near gale-force winds covering much of the
basin from 17N-28N between 42W to the Bahamas near 75W. Sea
heights will be reaching 17 feet, particularly to the north of
Puerto Rico and to the north of the Leeward Islands, in E to SE
swell. A cold front enters the forecast area from 31N33W to
23N49W, then stalls from that point 21N66W. A shear-line begins
from 21N66W to 23N75W. Scattered showers are in the vicinity of
the front.

Strong high pressure across the western and central Atlantic will
continue through early Tuesday, then shift eastward and weaken
through Wednesday night. Strong trades, gusty at times, will
remain in place with potentially hazardous seas through Sunday
night, then fresh to strong trades will be confined to the
southern waters through Wednesday night. Large seas will continue
over most of the forecast waters through Wednesday night.

$$
AKR
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