[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 100545
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1245 AM EST Fri Jan 10 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...

A 1042 mb surface high is centered near 40N72W. The high will
move eastward into the western Atlantic through Friday, resulting
in a continuation of strong to near gale-force trades over nearly
the entire Caribbean basin through the weekend. These winds off
the coast of Colombia from 11N-15N between 73W-79W are expected
to continue through the weekend, both at night and during the day.
Seas will range from 13 to 17 ft on Friday, and 15 to 19 ft on
Saturday. See the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Weather Service under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for
details.

GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...

The next cold front will enter the NW Gulf of Mexico on Saturday
morning, then extend from the Florida Big Bend to the Bay of
Campeche by Saturday night. Behind the front, gale-force NW winds
are expected off the coast of Veracruz by Saturday afternoon.
These conditions will continue through early Sunday. See the
latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Weather Service
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough emerges off the coast of Africa from near
05N09W and extends to 01N26W. The ITCZ extends from 01N26W to the
coast of Brazil near 03S40W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted along the boundaries between 16W-43W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Gale force winds are expected on Saturday off the coast of
Veracruz, Mexico. See the section above for details.

Surface ridging prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1042 mb
high centered north of the area. Scatterometer data depicts fresh
to strong easterly winds across the eastern half of the basin,
while moderate to fresh southeast winds are noted west of 90W. A
large upper- level trough over the west- central U.S. is creating
upper- level diffluence over portions of Louisiana, east Texas,
northern Mexico and the NW Gulf of Mexico. This is leading to some
scattered showers over the NW Gulf of Mexico, as well as portions
of east Texas and western Louisiana.

High pressure over the E United States will shift
eastward into the western Atlantic through Friday. A cold front
will enter the NW Gulf of Mexico on Saturday morning. The front
will extend from the Florida Big Bend to the Bay of Campeche by
Saturday night. The cold front will stall, and the boundary will
drift northward through Monday before shifting N of the area Tue.
Gale-force NW winds are expected behind the front off the coast
of Veracruz Mexico on Saturday afternoon.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warning
currently in effect for the south central Caribbean.

A surface trough extends from 20N87W to 16N86W with scattered
showers. The remainder of the basin is relatively dry due to the
influence of mid-to-upper level ridging. The latest ASCAT pass
depicts fresh to strong easterly winds across most of the basin
except within 90 nm north of the coast of Colombia, where gale-
force winds are noted.

Strong high pressure will prevail N of the area through Tue
night. Strong trade winds and large seas will prevail across much
of the region through Tue. Gale-force winds are expected off the
coast of Colombia through Tue.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1042 mb high centered north of the area is causing strong to
near-gale force winds E winds over the Florida Straits and the
Bahamas. The latest ASCAT pass depicts fresh to strong winds west
of 60W. Similar conditions should continue south of 29N between
50W-80W through the weekend before winds gradually diminish by early
next week. To the east, a cold front extends from 31N49W to
25N65W, then becomes stationary from that point to 23N74W. A
surface trough is analyzed east of the front from 31N47W to
27N49W. Another trough is noted from 28N42W to 16N43W. No
significant convection is noted along these troughs.

The front over the central Atlantic will dissipate Fri. Strong
high pressure will build across the area in the wake of the front,
and prevail across the region through next Tue. Expect strong
winds and building seas across the entire region.

$$

ERA
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