[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101113
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
613 AM EST Fri Jan 10 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...

A 1042 mb surface high is centered near 39N67W. The high will
move eastward into the western Atlantic today, resulting in a
continuation of strong to gale-force winds off the coast of
Colombia from 11N-14N between 73W-79W. These conditions will
continue through the weekend, with seas ranging from 13 to 20 ft
starting on Sat. See the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Weather Service under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC for details.

GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...

The next cold front will enter the NW Gulf of Mexico on Sat
morning, then extend from the Florida Big Bend to the Bay of
Campeche by Sat night. As the front approaches, gale-force SE
winds are expected within 90 nm of the Texas coast starting
tonight. Behind the front, gale-force NW winds are expected off
the coast of Veracruz by Sat afternoon. These conditions will
continue through early Sun. See the latest High Seas Forecast
issued by the National Weather Service under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough emerges off the coast of Africa from 07N11W
and extends to 01N27W. The ITCZ extends from 01N27W to the coast
of Brazil near 02S41W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
along the boundaries between 18W-41W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

See the section above for details on the Gale Warning currently in
effect.

Surface ridging prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1042 mb
high centered north of the area. Scatterometer data depicts fresh
to strong easterly winds across the eastern half of the basin,
while moderate to fresh southeast winds are noted west of 90W. A
large upper-level trough over the west-central U.S. is creating
upper-level diffluence over portions of Louisiana, east Texas,
northern Mexico and the NW Gulf of Mexico. This is leading to
scattered showers over the NW Gulf of Mexico.

SE winds will reach gale-force tonight ahead of a strong cold
front entering the NW Gulf of Mexico by Sat morning. The front
will extend from the Florida Big Bend to the Bay of Campeche Sat
night, stall and weaken Sun, then drift northward through Mon.
Gale-force NW winds are expected west of the front off the coast
of Veracruz Mexico Sat afternoon.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warning
currently in effect for the south-central Caribbean.

A surface trough extends across the Yucatan Peninsula from 22N87W
to 17N87W with scattered showers. The remainder of the basin is
relatively dry due to the influence of mid-to-upper level ridging.
The latest ASCAT pass depicts fresh to strong easterly winds
across most of the basin except within 90 nm north of the coast of
Colombia, where gale-force winds are noted.

Strong high pressure will prevail north of the area through Tue
night. Strong trade winds and large seas will prevail across much
of the region through Tue. Gale-force winds are expected off the
coast of Colombia through Tue.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1042 mb high centered north of the area is causing strong to
near-gale force winds E winds over the Florida Straits and the
Bahamas. The latest ASCAT pass depicts fresh to strong winds west
of 60W. Similar conditions should continue south of 29N between
50W-80W through the weekend before winds gradually diminish by early
next week. To the east, a cold front extends from 31N47W to
26N56W, then becomes stationary from that point to 23N74W. A
surface trough is analyzed from 26N44W to 15N44W. No significant
convection is noted along the trough.

The front over the central Atlantic will dissipate Fri. Strong high
pressure will build north of a stationary front east of the
Bahamas the next few days, and prevail across the region through
Tue. Strong winds and large seas are expected across the entire
region.

$$

ERA
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