[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 092309
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
609 PM EST Thu Jan 9 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2250 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...

A 1041 mb high over the Delmarva Peninsula will move eastward into
the western Atlantic through Friday, resulting in a continuation
of strong to near gale force trades over nearly the entire
Caribbean basin through the weekend. Gale-force winds this evening
off the coast of Colombia are expected to continue through the
weekend, both at night and during the day. The gales over the
next 48 hours are expected from 11N-15N between 73W-79W. The winds
will cause seas to range from 13 to 17 ft through Friday, and 15
to 19 ft on Saturday. See the latest High Seas Forecast issued by
the National Weather Service under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for details.

GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...

A strong cold front will enter the NW Gulf of Mexico Saturday
morning, then extend from the Florida Big Bend to the Bay of
Campeche Saturday night. Behind the front, gale-force NW winds are
expected off the coast of Veracruz on Saturday afternoon. See the
latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Weather Service
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough emerges off the coast of Africa from the
Liberia/Ivory Coast border near 04N08W and extends to 02N11W to
01N19W. The ITCZ extends from 01N19W to 00N30W to the coast of
Brazil near 04S38W. Isolated moderate convection is seen from
01S-04N between 12W-26W. Scattered moderate with isolated strong
convection is noted from 07S-01S between 34W-46W, including over
portions of Brazil.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Gale force winds are expected on Saturday off the coast of
Veracruz Mexico. See section above for details.

Surface ridging prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1041 mb
high centered over the Delmarva peninsula. 25 kt E to SE winds
prevail across much of the eastern half of the Gulf, while 15 to
20 kt SE to S winds are cover the western Gulf. A large upper-
level trough over the west-central U.S. is creating upper-level
diffluence over portions of Louisiana, east Texas, northern Mexico
and the NW Gulf of Mexico. This is leading to some scattered
showers over the NW Gulf of Mexico, as well as portions of east
Texas and western Louisiana.

The 1041 mb high over the Delmarva peninsula will shift eastward
into the western Atlantic Ocean through Friday. A strong cold
front will enter the NW Gulf of Mexico on Saturday morning. The
front will extend from the Florida Big Bend to the Bay of Campeche
Saturday night. The cold front will stall, and the boundary will
drift northward through Monday before shifting N of the area Tue.
Gale-force NW winds are expected behind the front off the coast
of Veracruz Mexico on Saturday afternoon.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warning
currently in effect for the south central Caribbean.

A surface trough extends from 13N83W near the coast of northern
Nicaragua to 18.5N86W. Scattered moderate showers and tstorms are
seen within 90 nm either side of the trough axis, including over
portions of NE Nicaragua, NE Honduras and the Gulf of Honduras.
The remainder of the basin is relatively dry due to the influence
of mid- to upper-level ridging. The latest ASCAT pass from
Thursday morning shows 20-25 kt trade winds across most of the
basin, with near gale to locally gale force winds near the coast
of Colombia.

Strong high pressure will prevail N of the area through Tue
night. Strong trade winds and very large seas will prevail across
most of the Caribbean basin through Tue. Gale-force winds are
expected near the coast of Colombia during the entire time.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1041 mb high centered over the Delmarva peninsula is causing
strong to near gale force winds E winds over the Florida Straits,
through the Bahamas to the area east of the Bahamas. The high will
move out over the western Atlantic, where it will prevail through
Tuesday. The ASCAT pass from Thursday morning shows 25-30 kt
winds in the area. Similar winds should continue for the entire
area south of 29N between 50W-80W through the weekend before winds
gradually diminish early next week. Large seas of 12-15 ft are
expected east of the Bahamas from 20N-27N, especially into
Saturday, then gradually subsiding early next week.

A cold front extends from 32N51W to 25N65W to the SE Bahamas near
22N74W. A pre-frontal trough is from 31N51W to 26N61W. Isolated
showers are along the front, and are also possible through the
central Bahamas and Florida Straits. The cold front from 25N65W to
the SE Bahamas will stall along 24N tonight before dissipating
Fri. Farther E, a surface trough extends along 41/42W from 15N-
26N with isolated showers along the trough.

$$
Hagen
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