[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 070600
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
100 AM EST Tue Jan 7 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of southern Liberia near
04N08W to 03N12W. The ITCZ extends from that point to 01N28W to
the coast of Brazil near 03S29W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted within 180 nm on either side of the ITCZ between 12W-33W.
There is also scattered moderate convection moving off the coast
of Brazil near the ITCZ from 02S-03N between 35W-46W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging prevails across the basin anchored by a 1022 mb
high over the north-central Gulf of Mexico near 28N86W. Latest
scatterometer data depicts gentle anticyclonic flow across most
of the basin. In response to a trough moving across the central
and southern Plains of the U.S., gentle to moderate southeasterly
winds are observed off the Texas and NE Mexican coasts.

High pressure over the NE Gulf will shift E into the Atlc tonight.
A cold front will cross the northern waters Tue and Tue night,
then stall and weaken over the southern Gulf on Wed. Fresh to
strong return flow will prevail across the region Thu through Fri
night. Another cold front will enter the NW Gulf Sat.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front continues to linger south of the Turks and
Caicos Islands through the Windward Passage, from 19N73W to
18N75W. Showers are moving southwestward across the Windward
Passage to eastern Jamaica. A surface trough is noted from 20N64W
to 16N66W. This trough is interacting with a plume of moisture
and is bringing scattered showers across most of Puerto Rico, with
the activity winding down across the Virgin Islands. Near the
coast of Belize and Honduras, a surface trough extends from 16N88W
to 15N84W, with scattered showers in the vicinity of the trough.
The latest scatterometer data depicts fresh N to NE winds north of
Colombia. There are also fresh to strong cyclonic winds in the
Gulf of Honduras. Otherwise, moderate trades are seen across the
rest of the basin.

Strong high pressure will build north of the area through mid
week, resulting in strengthening trade winds and building seas
across the Caribbean and Tropical N Atlantic waters. Gale force
winds are possible near the coast of Colombia Wed night through
Sat night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is over the central and western Atlantic from 31N49W
to 27N57W, then stalls to the southern Turks and Caicos Islands.
Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the front. To the east, a
surface trough is over the central Atlantic from 31N46W to 25N53W
with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms extending 100
nm of the trough axis. A second trough extends from 23N48W to
16N50W, with isolated showers in the vicinity. Surface ridging
prevails across the eastern Atlantic, anchored by a 1031 mb high
centered near 33N24W. The latest scatterometer data showed
moderate N to NW winds behind the cold front.

A nearly stationary front extending from near 24N65W to the
Windward Passage will dissipate Tue. Another cold front will move
off the SE U.S. coast later Tue and cross the waters Tue night
through Wed night. Expect strengthening winds and building seas
Thu through Fri night as strong high pressure builds over the
western Atlantic.

$$

MMT
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