[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071133
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
633 AM EST Tue Jan 7 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1145 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 05N03W
to 02N12W. The ITCZ extends from that point to 00N26W to the
coast of Brazil near 02S39W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted within 180 nm on the north side of the ITCZ between 82W-
30W, and south of the ITCZ between 31W-35W. Scattered moderate
to strong convection moving off the coast of Africa and extends
from 03S-01N east of 10W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging prevails across the basin anchored by a 1023 mb
high over the north-central Gulf of Mexico near 27N87W. Latest
scatterometer data depicts gentle anticyclonic flow across most of
the basin. In response to a trough moving across the central and
southern Plains of the U.S., gentle to moderate southeasterly
winds are observed off the Texas and NE Mexican coasts.

A cold front will push into the northern Gulf through tonight,
then stall and weaken along 24N on Wed. Fresh east to southeast
winds will prevail across the region Thu and Fri. Another cold
front will enter the NW Gulf on Sat, with near gale force NW winds
possible near Veracruz Sat night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front continues to linger south of the Turks and
Caicos Islands through the Windward Passage, from 20N72W to
18N75W. Showers are moving southwestward across the Windward
Passage to eastern Jamaica. A surface trough is noted from 20N66W
to 16N67W. This trough is interacting with a plume of moisture
and is bringing scattered showers across most of Puerto Rico, with
the activity winding down across the Virgin Islands. Near the
coast of Belize and Honduras, a surface trough extends from 16N88W
to 15N84W, with scattered showers in the vicinity of the trough.
The scatterometer data depicts fresh N to NE winds north of
Colombia. There are also fresh to strong cyclonic winds in the
Gulf of Honduras. Otherwise, moderate trades are seen across the
rest of the basin.

Strong high pressure will build north of the area through Fri,
resulting in strong trade winds and building seas across the
entire region. Gale force winds are expected near the coast of
Colombia Thu night through Sat night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is over the central and western Atlantic from 31N50W
to 27N57W, then stalls to the southern Turks and Caicos Islands.
Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the front. To the east, a
pre-frontal trough is over the central Atlantic from 31N46W to
25N53W with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms extending
100 nm of the trough axis. A second trough extends from 23N49W to
16N51W, with isolated showers in the vicinity. A third trough is
noticeable 180 nm to the east from 26N43W to 21N46W with scattered
showers in the vicinity. Surface ridging prevails across the
eastern Atlantic, anchored by a 1030 mb high centered near
34N23W. The latest scatterometer data showed moderate N to NW
winds behind the cold front.

High pressure across the northern waters will shift eastward
today ahead of a cold front moving off the SE U.S. coast. The
front will extend from 31N70W to southern Florida Wed, and become
stationary on Thu. Strong high pressure building north of 30N Wed
night through Fri night will produce a large area of strong winds
and building seas across the entire region, with highest winds and
seas expected east of the Bahamas Thu and Fri.

$$
MMT
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