[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 062313
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
612 PM EST Mon Jan 6 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2320 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of southern Liberia near
04N08W to 03N12W. The ITCZ extends from 03N12W to 03N21W to
02N33W to the coast of Brazil near 01S47W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted within 200 nm on either side of the ITCZ
between 18W-38W. There is also scattered moderate convection
moving off the coast of Brazil near the ITCZ from 03S-01N between
39W-49W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging prevails across the basin anchored by a 1025 mb
high over the north-central Gulf of Mexico near 27N90W. The latest
scatterometer data depicts gentle anticyclonic flow prevails
across most of the basin. In response to a trough moving across
the central and southern Plains of the U.S., gentle to moderate
southeasterly winds are observed off the Texas and NE Mexican
coasts.

High pressure over the NE Gulf will shift east into the Atlantic
tonight. A cold front will cross the northern waters Tuesday and
Tuesday night, then stall and weaken over the southern Gulf on
Wednesday. Fresh to strong return flow will prevail across the
region Thursday through Friday night. Another cold front will
enter the NW Gulf Saturday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front continues to linger south of the Turks and
Caicos Islands through the Windward Passage, from 21N72W to
18N76W. Showers are moving southwestward across the Windward
Passage to eastern Jamaica. A pre-frontal trough is noted in the
Mona Passage from 22N66W to 16N69W. This trough is interacting
with a plume of moisture and is bringing scattered showers across
most of Puerto Rico, with the activity winding down across the
Virgin Islands. Near the coast of Belize and Honduras, a surface
trough extends from 18N88W to 15N84W, with scattered showers in
the vicinity of the trough. The latest scatterometer data depicts
fresh N to NE winds north of Colombia. There are also fresh to
strong cyclonic winds in the Gulf of Honduras. Otherwise, moderate
trades are seen across the rest of the basin.

Strong high pressure will build north of the area through mid
week, resulting in strengthening trade winds and building seas
across the Caribbean and Tropical N Atlantic waters. Gale force
winds are possible near the coast of Colombia from Wednesday
night through Saturday night.


ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is over the central and western Atlantic from 31N53W
to 26N62W to the southern Turks and Caicos Islands. Scattered
showers are within 60 nm of the front. To the east, a surface
trough is over the central Atlantic from 22N46W to 16N50W with
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms extending 100 nm of
the trough axis, from 19N- 22N between 43W-45W. Surface ridging
prevails across the eastern Atlantic, anchored by a 1030 mb high
centered near 33N23W. The latest scatterometer data showed
moderate N to NW winds behind the cold front.

The cold front will stall from near 23.5N65W to Hispaniola
tonight, then dissipate Tuesday. Another cold front will move off
the SE U.S. coast later Tuesday and cross the waters Tuesday
night through Wednesday night. Expect strengthening winds and
building seas Thursday through Friday night as strong high
pressure builds over the western Atlantic.

$$
AKR
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