[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 041140
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
640 AM EST Sat Jan 4 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES....

...Western Atlantic Gale Warning...

A cold front is expected to move off the NE Florida coast today.
North to northwest gale-force winds are expected to develop behind
the front, Saturday evening. By Sunday morning, 05/1200 UTC, the
front is expected to be from 31N69W to 22N78W with north to nw
gale-force winds following the front. Expect these winds to occur
N of 28N between 66W-80W as the front moves eastward across the
Atlantic. Seas will range from 12 to 20 feet in mixed swell. See
the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane
Center under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website
www.hurricanes.gov for further details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through 00N09W to 01N12W. The ITCZ
continues from that point to 03N29W to 00S49W. Scattered showers
and tstorms are seen within 120 nm on either side of the ITCZ
between 17W-48W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper-level ridge continues to shift eastward into the western
Atlantic and Caribbean as a digging upper-level low slowly slides
eastward. At the surface, a cold front extends from 29N85W to
23N89W to 18N94W in the Bay of Campeche. A pre-frontal trough is
analyzed along the Yucatan Peninsula. Scattered showers are noted
along the front and the trough, with scattered moderate convection
north of 24N between 83W-86W. To the northwest, the tail end of
the reinforcing front in the NW Gulf from 29N92W to 24N97W is
gradually weakening. No significant convection is noted along the
front. Earlier scatterometer data indicated fresh to strong
northerly winds north of 21N and west of 93W. Moderate to fresh
southerly winds are noted across the eastern Gulf east of the
front.

The cold front in the FL Panhandle will reach from central Florida
to the Yucatan peninsula later today, then exit the basin tonight.
Strong NW to N winds and 8 to 12 ft seas are expected west of the
front today. Winds and seas will diminish Sun and Mon as high
pressure builds over the area. Another cold front will move across
the northern Gulf Tue and Tue night, then stall and weaken on
Wed.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level ridging continues to dominate the basin. This is
keeping drier conditions into the area and inhibiting deep
convection. However, two areas of moisture are observed on the
TPW. A surface trough eastern Hispaniola and second trough along
the Lesser Antilles. Both features are moving across the eastern
and central Caribbean. This is bringing scattered showers across
the Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico, Virgin Islands, and Hispaniola.
The latest scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong trades
north of Colombia. Moderate to fresh southerly winds are noted in
the NW Caribbean ahead of the incoming system in the Gulf. Gentle
to moderate trades are in the eastern Caribbean.

High pressure N of the area will support fresh to occasionally
strong trade winds off Colombia through tonight. A cold front will
move through the Yucatan Channel tonight, bringing fresh
northerly winds to the NW Caribbean. The front will extend from
eastern Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras Sun, then weaken and
dissipate on Mon. NE winds will strengthen off the coast of
Colombia Tue night and Wed.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warning
currently in effect for the eastern Atlantic.

A Bermuda 1025 mb high pressure dominates the western Atlantic
centered near 29N60W while in the central Atlantic a cold front
enters the forecast area near 31N38W and stretches southwest to
a 1015 mb low pressure near 22N43W, then continues SW to 19N49W.
Front weakens from that point to 19N59W. Scattered showers are
present along the front. A pre-frontal trough extends from 23N40W
to 16N48W, with scattered showers along the trough north of 16N
between 39W-43W. Latest scatterometer data depicts fresh northerly
winds behind the front, and moderate behind the pre-frontal
trough.

High pressure across the western Atlantic will shift eastward
today ahead of a strong cold front moving into Florida. The front
will reach from 31N76W to southern Florida tonight, and from
28N65W to eastern Cuba Sun night, then stall and weaken from
23N65W to Hispaniola Mon. Gale force W to NW winds are expected
tonight and Sun north of 28N following the front. High pressure
will build across the area Mon and Tue.

$$
MMT
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