[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 040555
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1255 AM EST Sat Jan 4 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES....

...Western Atlantic Gale Warning...

A cold front is expected to move off the NE Florida coast tonight
into Saturday morning, stretching from 31N75W to 23N80W. North to
northwest gale-force winds are expected to develop behind the
front by Saturday, 05/0300 UTC. By Sunday morning, 05/1200 UTC,
the front is expected to be from 31N69W to 22N78W with north to
northwest gale-force winds following the front. Expect these
winds to occur N of 28N between 66W-80W as the front moves
eastward across the Atlantic. Seas will range from 12 to 20 feet
in mixed swell. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by
the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers
HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website www.hurricanes.gov for further
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through 02N10W to 03N12W. The ITCZ
continues from that point to 00S46W. Scattered showers and
tstorms are seen within 120 nm on either side of the ITCZ
between 15W-45W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper-level ridge continues to shift eastward into the western
Atlantic and Caribbean as a digging upper-level low slowly slides
eastward. At the surface, a 1012 mb low is analyzed near 26N89W.
A cold front extends east of the low to the Florida panhandle near
30N87W, and southwest of the low to the coast of Mexico near
19N97W. A pre-frontal trough is analyzed from 17N90W to 22N89W
in the Yucatan Peninsula. Scattered showers are noted along the
front and the trough. To the northwest, a 1013 mb surface low is
centered near southern Louisiana, with a reinforcing front
extending southwest from 29N93W to South Padre Island, Texas near
26N97W. No significant convection is noted along the front in
the northwest Gulf. Surface ridging prevails across the eastern
Gulf waters, mainly east of 85W. Scatterometer winds indicate
fresh to strong northerly winds north of 21N and west of 93W.
Moderate to fresh southerly winds are noted across the eastern
Gulf east of the front.

The cold front will move eastward across the Gulf Sat, then exit
the Gulf on Sat night. A reinforcing cold front, which has just
reached the NW Gulf, will cross the northern Gulf through Sat
night. Strengthening NW to N winds and building seas are expected
across the Gulf in association with these fronts. Winds and seas
will diminish Sun and Mon as high pressure builds over the region.
Another strong cold front will move southeastward across the
waters Tue and Tue night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level ridging continues to dominate the basin. This is
bringing relatively dry air into the area and inhibiting deep
convection. However, two areas of moisture are observed on the
latest TPW is moving across the eastern and central Caribbean.
This is bringing scattered showers across Puerto Rico, Virgin
Islands, Hispaniola and Jamaica. The latest scatterometer data
depicts fresh to strong trades north of Colombia. Moderate to
fresh southerly winds are noted in the NW Caribbean ahead of the
incoming system in the Gulf. Gentle to moderate trades are in the
eastern Caribbean.

The Bermuda High north of the area is supporting fresh to strong
trades off Colombia through Sat night. These will diminish as the
high shifts eastward. A cold front will move through the Yucatan
Channel into the NW Caribbean late Sat, followed by strengthening
N winds and building seas. The front will extend from E Cuba to
the Gulf of Honduras Sun afternoon, then weaken and dissipate on
Mon. The trades will strengthen again over the central and W
Caribbean Tue night and Wed as a strong Bermuda High redevelops
north of the area. Moderate long-period NW swell will reach the
tropical N Atlantic waters beginning on Tue.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warning
currently in effect for the eastern Atlantic.

A Bermuda 1025 mb high pressure dominates the western Atlantic
centered near 29N64W while in the central Atlantic a cold front
enters the central Atlantic near 30N40W and stretches southwest
to 20N49W, then becomes weak through 18N59W. A pre-frontal trough
is analyzed from 30N38W to a 1016 mb low near 27N39W to 18N50W.
Scattered moderate convection prevails along the trough and low
north of 19N between 38W-44W, while scattered showers are noted
along the front south of 20N west of 48W. Latest scatterometer
data depicts fresh northerly winds behind the front, and moderate
behind the pre-frontal trough.

The Bermuda High will shift eastward tonight and Sat ahead of a
strong cold front approaching the SE U.S. coast. The front will
move offshore Sat afternoon, reach from near Bermuda to E Cuba on
Sun afternoon, extend from 24N65W to the Windward Passage on Mon
afternoon, and then dissipate over the area on Tue. Near gale to
gale-force SW winds ahead of the front and W to NW gales behind
the front are expected Sat night and Sun over the forecast waters
north of 28N. High pressure will build across the northern waters
Mon and Tue as the front stalls and weakens. A second - likely
weaker - cold front should emerge off of the SE U.S. coast on Tue
night or Wed.

$$
MMT
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