[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 032333
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
633 PM EST Fri Jan 3 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES....

...Western Atlantic Gale Warning...

A cold front is expected to move off the NE Florida coast tonight
into Saturday morning, stretching from 31N75W to 23N80W. North to
northwest gale-force winds are expected to develop behind the
front by Saturday, 05/0300 UTC. By Sunday morning, 05/1200 UTC,
the front is expected to be from 31N69W to 22N78W with north to
northwest gale-force winds following the front. Expect these
winds to occur N of 28N between 66W-80W as the front moves
eastward across the Atlantic. Seas will range from 12 to 20 feet
in mixed swell. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by
the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers
HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website www.hurricanes.gov for further
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through 02N10W to 02N06W. The ITCZ
continues from that point to 01S46W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted within 140 nm on either side of the ITCZ
between 15W-40W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper-level ridge continues to shift eastward into the western
Atlantic and Caribbean as a digging upper-level low slowly slides
eastward. At the surface, a 1008 low is analyzed near 27N92W. A
cold front extends east of the low to the Florida panhandle near
30N87W, and southwest of the low to the coast of Mexico near
21N97W. A pre-frontal trough is analyzed from 30N87W to 28N89W.
Scattered showers are noted along the front, while scattered
moderate convection is noted along the trough. To the southwest,
a 1010 mb surface low is centered near 22N93W, with surface trough
extending from 26N92W to the low to 18N93W. Surface ridging
prevails across the eastern Gulf waters, mainly east of 89W. At
2100 UTC, ship 3EMB9 reported NNE 40 kt from their anemometer
located well above 10 m. Scatterometer winds also reported gale
force near the front, though these are not considered reliable due
to rain contamination. Moderate to fresh southerly winds are
noted across the eastern Gulf east of the front.

The cold front will move eastward across the Gulf tonight
and Sat, then exit the Gulf on Sat night. A reinforcing cold
front will cross the northern Gulf tonight through Sat night.
Strengthening winds and building seas are expected across the Gulf
in association with these fronts. Winds and seas will diminish
Sun and Mon as high pressure builds over the region. Another
strong cold front will move SE across the waters Tue and Tue
night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level ridging continues to dominate the basin. This is
bringing relatively dry air into the area and inhibiting deep
convection. However, two areas of moisture are observed on the
latest TPW is moving across the eastern and central Caribbean. A
surface trough is analyzed from 17N68W to 14N69W. This is bringing
scattered showers across Puerto Rico, Virgin Islands, Hispaniola
and Jamaica. Another surface trough extends across the Lesser
Antilles from 16N59W to 11N62W. This trough is also bringing
showers to the islands. The latest scatterometer data depicts
fresh to strong trades north of Colombia. Moderate to fresh
southerly winds are noted in the NW Caribbean ahead of the
incoming system in the Gulf. Gentle to moderate trades are in the
eastern Caribbean.

The Bermuda High north of the area is supporting
fresh to strong SE winds near the Gulf of Honduras through tonight
and fresh to strong trades off Colombia through Sat night. These
will diminish as the high shifts eastward. A cold front will move
through the Yucatan Channel into the NW Caribbean late Sat,
followed by strengthening N winds and building seas. The front
will extend from E Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras Sun afternoon,
then weaken and dissipate on Mon. The trades will increase again
over the central and W Caribbean Tue night and Wed as the Bermuda
High redevelops north of the area. Moderate long-period NW swell
will reach the tropical N Atlantic waters beginning on Tue.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warning
currently in effect for the eastern Atlantic.

A cold front enters the central Atlantic near 31N42W and
stretches southwest to 20N58W, then becomes weak through 20N70W.
A pre-frontal trough is analyzed from 30N41W to a 1014 mb low near
26N42W to 20N46W. Scattered moderate convection prevails along the
trough and low, while scattered showers are noted along the front.
The latest scatterometer data depicts fresh southerly winds ahead
of the pre-frontal trough, and moderate to fresh northerly winds
behind the cold front. Surface ridging is building in the wake of
the front across the western Atlantic, anchored by a 1024 mb high
centered near 30N67W. To the east, a surface trough is analyzed
over the African coastline from 26N15W to 12N17W.

The Bermuda High will shift eastward tonight and Sat
ahead of a strong cold front approaching the SE U.S. coast. The
front will move offshore Sat afternoon, reach from near Bermuda
to E Cuba on Sun afternoon, extend from 24N65W to the Windward
Passage on Mon afternoon, and then dissipate over the area on
Tue. Near gale to gale-force SW winds ahead of the front and W to
NW gales behind the front are expected Sat night and Sun over the
forecast waters north of 28N. High pressure will build across the
northern waters Mon and Tue as the front stalls and weakens. A
second - weaker - cold front is likely to emerge off of the SE
U.S. coast on Tue night or Wed.

$$

ERA
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