[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 041757
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1257 PM EST Sat Jan 4 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES....

...Western Atlantic Gale Warning...

A cold front is expected to move off the NE Florida coast this
evening. North to northwest gale-force winds are expected on
05/0000 UTC with seas 15-18 ft. Expect these winds to occur N of
28N between 66W-80W as the front moves eastward across the
Atlantic. The gale event is forecast to end on 05/1800 UTC. See
the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane
Center under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website
www.hurricanes.gov for further details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through 01N00W to 01N07W. The ITCZ
continues from that point to 02N20W to 04N38W to the coast of
Brazil near 01S46W. Isolated moderate convection is from 00N-07N
between 10W-34W, and from 07N-04S between 34W-52W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from N Florida near 31N83W to the Yucatan
Peninsula near 21N89W to S Mexico near 16N92W. Radar imagery shows
scattered moderate convection within 120 nm E of front N of 26N.
Scattered showers are elsewhere within 90 nm E of the front. A
1032 mb is over N Mexico near 26N102W.

In the upper levels, an upper level trough is over Texas with SW
flow over the Gulf of Mexico and strong subsidence.

The cold front will reach from south Florida to the Yucatan
channel this evening, then exit the basin overnight. Strong NW to
N winds and 8 to 12 ft seas are expected west of the front today.
Winds and seas will diminish Sun and Mon as high pressure builds
over the area. Another cold front will move across the northern
Gulf Tue and Tue night, then stall and weaken on Wed.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough is over the E Caribbean from 18N62W to 11N63W.
Scattered showers are within 180 nm of the trough. 10-25
tradewinds are over the Caribbean Sea with strongest winds along
the coast of N Colombia and weakest winds S of Cuba.

A large upper level high is centered over the S Bahamas near
21N72W. Strong subsidence is over the Caribbean and Central
America.

High pressure N of the area will support fresh to occasionally
strong trade winds off Colombia through tonight. A cold front will
move through the Yucatan Channel tonight, bringing fresh
northerly winds to the NW Caribbean. The front will extend from
eastern Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras Sun, then weaken and
dissipate on Mon. NE winds will strengthen off the coast of
Colombia and through the Windward Passage Tue night and Wed.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warning
currently in effect for the eastern Atlantic.

A 1025 mb high pressure dominates the western Atlantic centered
near 28N60W. A cold front enters the central Atlantic near 31N39W
to a 1015 mb low near 22N44W, then continues SW to 19N49W.
A pre-frontal trough extends from 22N41W to 16N49W. Scattered
showers are within 120 nm of the front and trough. Latest
scatterometer data depicts fresh northerly winds behind the front,
and moderate behind the pre-frontal trough.

High pressure across the western Atlantic will shift eastward
today ahead of a strong cold front moving into Florida. The front
will reach from 31N76W to southern Florida tonight, and from
28N65W to eastern Cuba Sun night, then stall and weaken from
23N65W to Hispaniola Mon. Gale force winds are expected this
evening through Sun evening north of 28N following the front,
with brief winds to gale force possible just ahead of the front.
High pressure will build across the area Mon and Tue.

$$
Formosa
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