[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 030558
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1258 AM EST Fri Jan 3 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0540 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES....

...Western Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning...

The 36 hour forecast, starting on Saturday morning, consists of:
S to SW gale-force winds, and sea heights ranging from 9 feet to
11 feet, N of 29N between 77W and 80W. The gale-force wind
conditions are forecast to continue until at least Saturday night.
Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST: MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC;
and the latest OFFSHORE FORECAST: MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC; or go to
the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, from
the NWS National Hurricane Center, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the Equator along the Prime
Meridian, to 03N05W and 03N10W. The ITCZ continues from 03N10W to
05N23W to the Equator along 48W. Precipitation: Widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong to the south of the monsoon trough/ITCZ
from 26W eastward, within 90 nm to the north of ITCZ between 13W
and 33W. Isolated moderate is within 210 nm to the north of the
ITCZ between 37W and 50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

The GFS model shows large-scale anticyclonic wind flow that covers
the eastern half of the Gulf of Mexico, the Caribbean Sea, and
the Atlantic Ocean from 60W westward. The GFS model for 250 mb
shows an anticyclonic circulation center in the Windward Passage.
The anticyclonic circulation center is about 60 nm to the NE of
the SE Bahamas at 500 mb. The anticyclonic circulation center is
about 60 nm to the NE of the NW Bahamas at 700 mb.

A cold front extends from a SW Louisiana 1004 mb low pressure
center, to 26N95W. The front is stationary from 26N95W to Mexico
near 23N98W. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds
and isolated moderate to the west of the line that runs from SE
Louisiana to the coast of Mexico near 20N96.5W.

The current western Gulf of Mexico frontal boundary will move
eastward tonight. It will reach from the western Florida Panhandle
to Veracruz Mexico by Friday afternoon. A reinforcing front will
move off the Texas coast tonight. The reinforcing from will extend
from southwest Louisiana to northeast Mexico by Friday afternoon.
Both fronts will move to the east of the Gulf of Mexico by
Saturday afternoon. Expect increasing wind speeds and building sea
heights across the Gulf, both ahead of and behind the fronts, as
they move across the Gulf waters. The wind speeds and the sea
heights will diminish by early next week, as high pressure builds
across the Gulf of Mexico, in the wake of the second front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The GFS model shows large-scale anticyclonic wind flow that covers
the eastern half of the Gulf of Mexico, the Caribbean Sea, and
the Atlantic Ocean from 60W westward. The GFS model for 250 mb
shows an anticyclonic circulation center in the Windward Passage.
The anticyclonic circulation center is about 60 nm to the NE of
the SE Bahamas at 500 mb. The anticyclonic circulation center is
about 60 nm to the NE of the NW Bahamas at 700 mb.

Comparatively drier air in subsidence in water vapor imagery covers
the Caribbean Sea to the east of the line from 20N82W to 10N81W.
Comparatively drier air in subsidence also is in the Atlantic
Ocean from 15N southward from 50W westward, and from 10N to 15N
between 36W and 50W.

The latest scatterometer data, from 03/0200 UTC, show a trough
about 60 nm or so to the east and southeast of Puerto Rico. Broken
to overcast low level and middle level clouds and rainshowers are
within 60 nm to 75 nm on either side of the line that extends
from 20N60W to 17N67W to 16N70W to 16N73W.

High pressure to the north of the area will maintain fresh to
occasionally strong trade winds off Colombia through the next
several days. A cold front will move through the Yucatan Channel
into the northwest Caribbean Sea by Saturday. The cold front will
be followed by an increase in winds and seas. The cold front will
reach from eastern Cuba to Nicaragua on Sunday afternoon, and
dissipate by Monday afternoon.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The GFS model shows large-scale anticyclonic wind flow that covers
the eastern half of the Gulf of Mexico, the Caribbean Sea, and
the Atlantic Ocean from 60W westward. The GFS model for 250 mb
shows an anticyclonic circulation center in the Windward Passage.
The anticyclonic circulation center is about 60 nm to the NE of
the SE Bahamas at 500 mb. The anticyclonic circulation center is
about 60 nm to the NE of the NW Bahamas at 700 mb.

An upper level trough is digging, into the discussion area, in
the central Atlantic Ocean, along 53W/54W, from 23N northward. The
trough supports a cold front that passes through 32N49W, to
25N60W, and curving to 24N70W. The front becomes stationary from
24N70W, to the Bahamas near 25N77W. Precipitation: broken to
overcast multilayered clouds, and widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong, are from 25N northward between 50W and the cold
front.

An upper level trough extends from a 37N24W cyclonic circulation
center, to a 31N28W cyclonic circulation center, to 23N29W.
Precipitation: no significant deep convective precipitation is
apparent in satellite imagery.

The current central Atlantic Ocean frontal boundary is expected
to dissipate tonight. A surface ridge is building in the wake of
the front. A strong cold front is forecast to move off the NE
Florida coast by early Saturday. The strong cold front will be
followed closely by a reinforcing front by Saturday afternoon.
The fronts will merge and reach from near Bermuda to E Cuba by
Sunday afternoon, and then extend from 31N55W to Hispaniola by
Monday afternoon. Wind speeds to gale-force are possible, both
ahead of and behind the fronts, from Saturday into Sunday, in
the waters mainly to the north of 29N.

$$
MT
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