[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031149
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
649 AM EST Fri Jan 3 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES....

...Western Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning...

The 42-hour forecast from 03/0600 UTC, starting on Saturday
night, consists of: a cold front from 31N76W to 26N86W. Expect W
gale-force winds, and sea heights ranging from 8 feet to 12 feet,
to the north of 29N to the west of the cold front. The gale-force
wind conditions are forecast to continue until at least Saturday
night/possibly on Sunday morning. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS
FORECAST: MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC; and the latest OFFSHORE
FORECAST: MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC; or go to the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, from the NWS
National Hurricane Center, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the Prime Meridian along 02N,
to 02N05W. The ITCZ continues from 02N05W to 03N13W, to 04N19W to
04N26W, to 02N38W. Precipitation: Widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong to the north of the ITCZ between 14W and 35W, and
to the south of the ITCZ between 12W and 25W. Isolated moderate
is elsewhere from 07N southward from 52W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

The GFS model shows large-scale anticyclonic wind flow that covers
the eastern half of the Gulf of Mexico, the Caribbean Sea, and
the Atlantic Ocean from 60W westward. The GFS model for 250 mb
shows an anticyclonic circulation center between Jamaica and
Haiti. The anticyclonic circulation center is nearly on top of the
SE Bahamas at 500 mb. The anticyclonic circulation center is
about 190 nm to the ENE of the NW Bahamas at 700 mb.

A stationary front passes through the coastal sections of south
central Louisiana, to 26N94W, to the coast of Mexico near
23.5N98W. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds
and isolated moderate to the west of the line that runs from SE
Louisiana to the coast of Mexico along 92W in the SW corner of the
Gulf of Mexico.

The current stationary front will be overtaken by a strong cold
front, that will move off the Texas coast later today. The cold
front will reach from the Florida Panhandle to the Bay of
Campeche tonight. The strong cold front will exit from the Gulf
of Mexico by Saturday afternoon. Increasing wind speeds and
building sea heights are expected across the Gulf of Mexico, as
the front moves across the Gulf waters. The wind speeds and the
sea heights will diminish early next week, as high pressure
builds across the region behind the front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The GFS model shows large-scale anticyclonic wind flow that covers
the eastern half of the Gulf of Mexico, the Caribbean Sea, and
the Atlantic Ocean from 60W westward. The GFS model for 250 mb
shows an anticyclonic circulation center between Jamaica and
Haiti. The anticyclonic circulation center is nearly on top of the
SE Bahamas at 500 mb. The anticyclonic circulation center is
about 190 nm to the ENE of the NW Bahamas at 700 mb.

Comparatively drier air in subsidence in water vapor imagery covers
the Caribbean Sea to the east of the line from 20N82W to 10N81W.
Comparatively drier air in subsidence also is in the Atlantic
Ocean from 15N southward from 50W westward, and from 10N to 15N
between 36W and 50W.

The latest scatterometer data, from 03/0200 UTC, show a trough
along 64W/65W, to the east and southeast of Puerto Rico, from 13N
to 19N. Broken to overcast low level and middle level clouds and
rainshowers are from 13N to 20N between 61W and 70W, from 13N
southward between 64W and 70W, and from 15N southward between 60W
and 64W. Similar clouds and precipitation are in the Atlantic
Ocean from 14N to 18N between 52W and 60W.

High pressure to the north of the area will maintain fresh to
occasionally strong trade winds off Colombia during the next
several days. A cold front will move through the Yucatan Channel
into the northwest Caribbean Sea on Saturday. The cold front will
be followed by an increase in the wind speeds and the sea heights.
The cold front will reach from eastern Cuba to Nicaragua on
Sunday, then weaken and dissipate on Monday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The GFS model shows large-scale anticyclonic wind flow that covers
the eastern half of the Gulf of Mexico, the Caribbean Sea, and
the Atlantic Ocean from 60W westward. The GFS model for 250 mb
shows an anticyclonic circulation center between Jamaica and
Haiti. The anticyclonic circulation center is nearly on top of the
SE Bahamas at 500 mb. The anticyclonic circulation center is
about 190 nm to the ENE of the NW Bahamas at 700 mb.

An upper level trough is digging, into the discussion area, in
the central Atlantic Ocean, along 50W, from 22N northward. The
trough supports a cold front that passes through 32N47W, to
23N60W, and curving to 23N72W. Precipitation: broken to overcast
multilayered clouds, and widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong, are from 21N northward between 32W and the cold front.

An upper level trough extends from a 37N22W cyclonic circulation
center, through 32N25W, to 23N26W. Precipitation: no significant
deep convective precipitation is apparent in satellite imagery.

High pressure in the western Atlantic Ocean will shift eastward
tonight, in advance of a strong cold front in the Gulf of Mexico.
The front will move off the NE Florida coast on Saturday. The cold
front will reach from near Bermuda to E Cuba on Sunday, and from
23N65W to Hispaniola on Monday. Gale-force westerly winds are
expected behind the front on Saturday night and Sunday, over the
forecast waters north of 28N. High pressure will prevail across
the region on Monday and Tuesday.

$$
MT
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