[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 030000
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 PM EST Thu Jan 2 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES....

...Western Atlantic Gale Warning...

A cold front is expected to move off the NE Florida coast by late
Friday night into Saturday morning. South to southwest gale-force
winds are expected to develop ahead of this front by Saturday,
04/1200 UTC from 29N-31N between 78W-80W. Seas will range from 9
to 11 ft. These gale-force winds will continue through Saturday
evening. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC or at website www.hurricanes.gov for further details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the Prime Meridian along 03N.
The ITCZ continues from 03N10W to 01S44W. Scattered showers and
tstorms are seen within 60 to 80 nm of the ITCZ between 22W-40W.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection extend 200 nm on
either side of the ITCZ near the coast of Brazil.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Upper level ridge continues to slide eastward centered over the
southern Bahamas as upper trough over the SW U.S. and western
Mexico makes its way eastward. In the western Gulf, a 1005 mb
low pressure is centered near 29N95W with a cold front extending
southward to 25N96W, then it begins to stall north of Tampico,
Mexico near 24N97W. A surface trough ahead of it extends from
24N96W to 29N93W with scattered moderate isolated strong
convection within the trough and behind the front. Alon the
western Mexican coast, scattered showers are also present
associated to another trough in the Bay of Campeche, from 20N-24N
between 94W-97W. Fair weather prevails across the central and
eastern Gulf, mainly east of 90W. ASCAT data depicts moderate to
fresh SE winds west of 90W.

A frontal system across the western Gulf will move eastward today,
reaching from the western Florida Panhandle to Veracruz Mexico by
Fri afternoon. A reinforcing front will move off the Texas coast
tonight, reaching from southwest Louisiana to northeast Mexico by
Fri afternoon. Both fronts will move east of the Gulf by Sat
afternoon. Expect increasing winds and building seas across the
Gulf both ahead and behind of the fronts as they move across the
Gulf waters. Winds and seas will diminish by early next week as
high pressure builds over the Gulf in the wake of the second
front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Deep level ridging dominates the Caribbean and this pattern will
hold for the next couple of days. A trough extends east of the
Virgin Islands from the Atlantic, analyzed from 16N63W to 26N59W.
This is producing scattered showers across the USVI and eastern
Puerto Rico. The latest scatterometer data depicts strong to near
gale-force winds north of Colombia with strong winds extending
northward into the central Caribbean, moderate to fresh south of
Hispaniola and light to gentle trades in the eastern and western
basin.

High pressure north of the area will maintain fresh to occasionally
strong trades off Colombia through the next several days. A cold
front will move through the Yucatan Channel into the northwest
Caribbean by Sat, followed by an increase in winds and seas. The
front will reach from eastern Cuba to Nicaragua Sun afternoon and
dissipate by Mon afternoon.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front enters the central Atlantic waters near 31N54W and
extends to the southwest to 24N71W. The front then stalls from
24N71W to the NW Bahamas near 25N76W to north central FL near
28N80W. Isolated showers are possible in the vicinity of the
front south of 28N and scattered to moderate convection north
of 28N between 47W-53W. A 1018 mb low is analyzed in the central
Atlantic near 25N44W with a trough extending along the low from
22N47W to 30N40W. Showers are seen within 80 nm of this feature. A
1019 mb high is analyzed near 30N79W and the other near 25N56W.
The latest scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong winds ahead
of the cold front in the central Atlantic and behind it.

The front is expected to dissipate later today. A strong cold
front is forecast to move off the NE Florida coast by early Sat,
followed closely by a reinforcing front by Sat afternoon. The
fronts will merge and reach from near Bermuda to E Cuba by Sun
afternoon, and then extend from 31N55W to Hispaniola by Mon
afternoon. Winds to gale force are possible both ahead and behind
the fronts Sat into Sun over the waters mainly north of 28N.

$$
Torres
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