[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021804
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
104 PM EST Thu Jan 2 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1720 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES....

A cold front is expected to move off the NE Florida coast by late
Friday night into Saturday morning. South to southwest gale-force
winds are expected to develop ahead of this front by Saturday,
04/1200 UTC from 29N-31N between 78W-80W. Seas will range from 9
to 11 ft. These gale- force winds will continue through Saturday
evening. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC or at website www.hurricanes.gov for further details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the Prime Meridian along 03N.
The ITCZ continues from 03N11W to 05N28W to 02S45W. Scattered
showers are seen within 100 nm of the ITCZ between 12W-38W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Upper level ridging is beginning to slide eastward over the
eastern Gulf as a trough over the SW U.S. and western Mexico
begins to push eastward. In the western Gulf, a 1005 mb low is off
the SE Texas coast, by the Galveston area, near 29N95W. A
stationary front extends southward from the low to the Mexican
coast near 24N98W. A warm front extends eastward from the low in
the extreme NW Gulf, albeit most of the boundary is inland. A 1006
mb low is in the Bay of Campeche near 21N97W with a trough
extending along the low from 20N96W to 27N94W. Showers are seen
along this feature. In the eastern Gulf, a warm front is right
along the western Florida Panhandle into the NE Gulf from 28N84W
to 30N87W. The front stalls from 27N82W to 28N84W. The latest
scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh south-southeasterly
winds across most of the Gulf, with light winds in the NW Gulf.

The stationary front will start moving eastward later today,
reaching from the western Florida Panhandle to Veracruz Mexico by
Friday afternoon. A reinforcing front will move off the Texas
coast tonight, reaching from southwest Louisiana to northeast
Mexico by Friday afternoon. Both fronts will move east of the
Gulf by Saturday afternoon. Expect increasing winds and building
seas across the Gulf both ahead of, and behind, these fronts as
they move across the Gulf waters. Winds and seas will diminish
Sunday and Monday as high pressure builds over the Gulf in the
wake of the second front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Deep level ridging dominates the Caribbean and this pattern will
hold for the next couple of days. A trough extends east of the
Virgin Islands from the Atlantic, analyzed from 16N64W to 26N61W.
This is producing scattered showers across the USVI and eastern
Puerto Rico. The latest scatterometer data depicts strong to near
gale-force winds north of Colombia with strong winds extending
northward into the central Caribbean. Light to gentle trades are
seen in the eastern and western basin.

High pressure north of the area will maintain fresh to
occasionally strong trades off Colombia through the next several
days. A cold front will move through the Yucatan Channel into the
northwest Caribbean Saturday, followed by an increase in winds
and seas. The front will reach from eastern Cuba to Nicaragua by
Sunday afternoon and dissipate by Monday afternoon.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front enters the central Atlantic waters near 31N58W and
extends to the southwest to 24N72W. The front then stalls from
24N72W to south Florida near 27N80W. The significant convection is
north of 31N. A 1018 mb low is analyzed in the central Atlantic
near 25N44W with a trough extending along the low from 19N47W to
28N40W. Showers are seen within 60 nm of this feature. A 1019 mb
high is analyzed near 30N79W and the other near 25N56W. The latest
scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong winds ahead of the
cold front in the central Atlantic and behind it.

The stationary front will dissipate later today. A strong cold
front is forecast to move off the NE Florida coast by early
Saturday, followed closely by a reinforcing front by Saturday
afternoon. The fronts will merge and reach from near Bermuda to E
Cuba by Sunday afternoon, and then extend from 31N55W to
Hispaniola by Monday afternoon. Winds to gale force are possible
both ahead and behind the cold fronts Saturday into Sunday over
the waters north of 28N.


$$
AKR
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