[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 020600
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
100 AM EST Thu Jan 2 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0540 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the Prime Meridian along 02N, to
04N10W and 04N27W. The ITCZ continues from 04N27W to 04N35W, to
the Equator along 44W, to the Equator along 49W and the coast of
Brazil. Precipitation: Isolated moderate to locally strong to the
south of 08N13W 07N34W 03N50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

The GFS model shows large-scale anticyclonic wind flow that covers
the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea. The GFS model for 250
mb shows an anticyclonic circulation center in the central
Caribbean Sea. The anticyclonic circulation center is just to the
north of Hispaniola at 500 mb. The anticyclonic circulation center
is in the Straits of Florida at 700 mb.

A warm front extends from a 1010 mb central Texas Gulf coast low
pressure center, into the middle of the Gulf of Mexico, to NW
Cuba. Upper level SW wind flow is pushing high level moisture
across the open waters of the Gulf of Mexico. Rainshowers are
possible along and to the north of the warm front.

A warm front extends from W Cuba to a low pressure near 27N96W
off of the S Texas coast. The low and front will continue moving
northward into Texas and Louisiana tonight. A cold front will
emerge off the Texas coast on Thursday afternoon. The cold front
will reach from Alabama to the Bay of Campeche by Friday
afternoon. A reinforcing cold front will follow into NW Gulf on
Thursday night, reaching from SW Louisiana to NE Mexico by Friday
afternoon. Both fronts will move to the east of the Gulf of Mexico
by Saturday afternoon. Expect increasing winds and building seas
across the Gulf of Mexico both ahead of, and behind, these fronts
as they move across the Gulf waters. The wind speeds and the sea
heights will diminish on Sunday and Monday, as high pressure
builds in the Gulf of Mexico, in the wake of the second front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The GFS model shows large-scale anticyclonic wind flow that covers
the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea. The GFS model for 250
mb shows an anticyclonic circulation center in the central
Caribbean Sea. The anticyclonic circulation center is just to the
north of Hispaniola at 500 mb. The anticyclonic circulation center
is in the Straits of Florida at 700 mb.

Comparatively drier air in subsidence covers the Caribbean Sea to
the east of the line that runs from the coast of Colombia near
09N76W, to 16N86W at the coast of Honduras, into the Yucatan
Channel. The drier air also covers the Atlantic Ocean from 20N50W
southward to the coast of Brazil, and from 05N to 15N between 40W
and 50W.

A surface trough is along 24N61W in the Atlantic Ocean, to 20N63W,
to 15N65W, in the Caribbean Sea. Broken low to middle level clouds
and possible rainshowers are within 240 nm to the east of the
trough, and within 180 nm to the west of the trough.

The Bermuda High, to the north of the area, will maintain fresh
to occasionally strong trade winds off Colombia through the next
several days. A cold front will move through the Yucatan Channel
into the NW Caribbean Sea on Saturday. The cold front will be
followed by an increase in the winds and the seas. The front will
reach from E Cuba to Nicaragua on Sunday afternoon, and it will
dissipate by Monday afternoon. No significant long-period N swell
will impact the tropical N Atlantic Ocean for the next several
days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 32N60W, in the western Atlantic Ocean,
to 26N70W, across the Bahamas near 24N75W, to NW Cuba.
Precipitation: rainshowers are possible within 150 nm to the E of
the cold front from 24N northward.

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 31N33W. Upper
level cyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from 27N
northward between 28W and 40W. A cold front passes through 32N31W
to 31N34W. The front becomes stationary from 31N34W to 31N41W.
The front becomes warm at 31N41W, and it continues northwestward
beyond 32N47W. A surface trough is along 28N39W 24N42W 20N43W.
Precipitation: isolated moderate is from 25N between 28W and 47W.

The current cold front will stall and weaken along roughly 25N by
Thu afternoon, and then dissipate Fri. A new and stronger cold
front is forecast to move off the NE Florida coast by early
Saturday. A reinforcing front will arrive by Saturday afternoon.
The fronts will merge and reach from near Bermuda to E Cuba by
Sunday afternoon. The merged fronts will extend from 31N55W to
Hispaniola by Monday afternoon. Wind speeds to gale-force are
possible both ahead of and behind the cold fronts, from Saturday
into Sunday, in the waters that are to the north of 28N.

$$
MT
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