[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021204
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
704 AM EST Thu Jan 2 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1150 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the Prime Meridian along 05N,
to 05N05W 04N09W and 04N20W. The ITCZ continues from 04N20W to
05N28W 04N34W, to 02N40W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate
to isolated strong is within 100 nm to the north of the ITCZ
between 33W and 38W, and within 30 nm to the south of the ITCZ
between 38W and 39W, and from the monsoon trough southward between
08W and 20W. Isolated moderate is elsewhere from 08N southward
from 50W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

The GFS model shows large-scale anticyclonic wind flow that covers
the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea. The GFS model for 250
mb shows an anticyclonic circulation center in the central
Caribbean Sea. The anticyclonic circulation center is just to the
north of Hispaniola at 500 mb. The anticyclonic circulation center
is in the Straits of Florida at 700 mb.

A 1008 mb low pressure center is near 28N95W in the NW corner of
the Gulf of Mexico. A warm front curves away from the 1008 mb low
pressure center to 29N92W and 25N86W. A stationary front continues
from 25N86W, through the Straits of Florida to 23N80W, and across
the Bahamas to 24N74W. A slowly-moving cold front extends from the
1008 mb low pressure center to the coast of Mexico near 22N97.5W.
Upper level SW wind flow is pushing high level moisture across
the open waters of the Gulf of Mexico. Rainshowers are possible
in the areas that are to the west of the line from 18.5N96W to
26N93W to 28N90W, and to the north of the warm front/stationary
front from 90W eastward. Scattered moderate to isolated strong is
in Mexico from 20N to 22N between the coast of Mexico and 100W.

The current cold front will remain generally stationary through
the morning. The current cold front then will start moving
eastward later today, reaching from the western Florida Panhandle
to Veracruz Mexico by Friday afternoon. A reinforcing front will
move off the Texas coast tonight, reaching from southwest
Louisiana to northeast Mexico by Friday afternoon. Both fronts
will move to the east of the Gulf by Saturday afternoon. Expect
increasing winds and building seas across the Gulf both ahead of,
and behind, these fronts as they move across the Gulf waters.
Winds and seas will diminish on Sunday and Monday, as high
pressure builds in the Gulf of Mexico, in the wake of the second
front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The GFS model shows large-scale anticyclonic wind flow that covers
the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea. The GFS model for 250
mb shows an anticyclonic circulation center in the central
Caribbean Sea. The anticyclonic circulation center is just to the
north of Hispaniola at 500 mb. The anticyclonic circulation center
is in the Straits of Florida at 700 mb.

Comparatively drier air in subsidence covers the Caribbean Sea and
parts of the Atlantic Ocean and South America from 03N to 20N
between 46W and 80W, and from 06N to 15N between 40W and 50W.

A surface trough is along 23N61W in the Atlantic Ocean, to
18N63W, to 14N64W, in the Caribbean Sea. Broken low to middle
level clouds and possible rainshowers are within 240 nm to the
west of the trough, and within 180 nm to the east of the trough.

High pressure, to the north of the area, will maintain fresh to
occasionally strong trade winds off Colombia through the next
several days. A cold front will move through the Yucatan Channel
into the NW Caribbean Sea on Saturday. The cold front will be
followed by an increase in the winds and the seas. The front will
reach from E Cuba to Nicaragua on Sunday afternoon, and it will
dissipate by Monday afternoon.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 32N58W, in the western Atlantic
Ocean, to 27N66W, to 24N74W just to the east of the Bahamas.
A stationary front continues from 24N74W through the Straits of
Florida. Precipitation: rainshowers are possible from 22N to 27N
between 58W and 62W, and elsewhere from 23N northward between 54W
and the cold front.

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 31N33W. Upper
level cyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from 27N
northward between 28W and 40W. A cold front passes through 32N31W
to 31N34W. The front becomes stationary from 31N34W to 31N41W.
The front becomes warm at 31N41W, and it continues northwestward
beyond 32N47W. A surface trough is along 26N41W 22N42W 18N43W
16N45W. Precipitation: rainshowers are possible within 360 nm to
the west and northwest of the surface trough.

The current stationary front will dissipate later today.
A new and stronger cold front is forecast to move off the NE
Florida coast by early Saturday. A reinforcing front will arrive
by Saturday afternoon. The fronts will merge and reach from near
Bermuda to E Cuba by Sunday afternoon. The merged fronts will
extend from 31N55W to Hispaniola by Monday afternoon. Wind speeds
to gale-force are possible both ahead of and behind the cold
fronts, from Saturday into Sunday, in the waters that are to the
north of 28N.

$$
MT
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