[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 012332
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
632 PM EST Wed Jan 1 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 01N09W to 03N04W. The ITCZ
continues from 03N04W to 04N25W to 00N46W. Scattered moderate
convection is within 180 nm of the ITCZ between 10W-38W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1015 mb surface low is centered over the southwest Gulf near
23N97W. A surface trough extends north from the low to 26N97W. A
warm front extends east from the low to 22N89W. The front
transitions to a stationary front from that point to 24N80W.
Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin,
anchored by a 1019 mb high centered near 31N88W.

The low will lift north into Texas tonight with the front
following it. A cold front will emerge off the Texas coast by Thu
afternoon, and reach from Alabama to the Bay of Campeche by Fri
afternoon. A reinforcing cold front will follow into NW Gulf Thu
night, reaching from SW Louisiana to NE Mexico by Fri afternoon.
Both fronts will move east of the Gulf by Sat afternoon. Expect
increasing winds and building seas across the Gulf both ahead of,
and behind, these fronts as they move across the Gulf waters.
Winds and seas will diminish Sun and Mon as high pressure builds
over the Gulf in the wake of the second front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Easterly trades prevail across the basin with ASCAT indicating
moderate to fresh winds across the central Caribbean mainly south
of 13N between 70W-80W. Scattered showers are noted across Central
America, with some of this activity reaching the Caribbean waters
mainly south of 10N. A surface trough is analyzed over the
northeast portion of the basin from 20N64W to 16N63W. This trough
will enhance showers across the Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico
through the next 48 hours.

The Bermuda High north of the area will maintain fresh to
occasionally strong trades off Colombia through the next several
days. A cold front will move through the Yucatan Channel into the
NW Caribbean Sat, followed by an increase in winds and seas. The
front will reach from eastern Cuba to Nicaragua by Sun afternoon
and dissipate by Mon afternoon.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends across the west Atlantic from 31N64W to
24N77W, then transitions to a stationary front from that point to
24N80W. A surface trough extends from 23N63W to 20N64W. Another
trough extends from 22N54W to 19N56W. To the east, a surface
trough extends from 29N36W to 22N42W. Scattered showers are noted
along the northern portion of this trough. A stationary front
extends along 30N between 34W- 47W with scattered showers. Surface
ridging prevails across the eastern Atlantic, anchored by a 1029
mb high centered near 30N11W.

The cold front over the west Atlantic will stall and weaken along
roughly 25N by Thu afternoon, and then dissipate Fri. A new and
stronger cold front is forecast to move off the NE Florida coast
by early Sat, followed closely by a reinforcing front by Sat
afternoon. The fronts will merge and reach from near Bermuda to E
Cuba by Sun afternoon, and then extend from 31N55W to Hispaniola
by Mon afternoon. Winds to gale force are possible both ahead and
behind the cold fronts Sat into Sun over the waters north of 28N.

$$

ERA
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net