[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 250527
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
105 AM EST Tue Feb 25 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0510 UTC.

...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...

A strong cold front is forecast to enter the NW Gulf of Mexico
on Tuesday night, and move across the Gulf of Mexico on
Wednesday. Gale-force N winds, behind the front, will affect
much of the Gulf of Mexico to the west of 90W, from 29N
southward. Wind speeds as fast as 45 knots, with possible gusts
to storm-force, will affect the SW Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday
afternoon. Expect sea heights ranging from 10 feet to 18 feet,
from 20N southward from 95W westward, The conditions will begin
to improve into Thursday. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS
FORECAST: MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, the latest OFFSHORE FORECAST:
MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC, or go to the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, from the NWS
National Hurricane Center, for more details.

...HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL FROM SE MEXICO TO NORTHERN
HONDURAS...

Heavy rainfall is likely to affect sections of southeastern
Mexico, central Guatemala, and northern Honduras, behind a
strong cold front, from Wednesday into Thursday. It is possible
that the rains may lead to flash flooding and mudslides. The
area with the greatest potential for significant flooding and
mudslides is in the northwestern and north central parts of
Honduras, from Wednesday night through Saturday night. Localized
flooding is possible in the southeastern parts of the Mexican
state of Veracruz and in the northern part of Chiapas, and in
central Guatemala, from Wednesday afternoon until Thursday
evening. Please monitor the latest forecasts from your local or
national meteorological service.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Liberia
near 06N10W, to 04N17W and 03N20W. The ITCZ continues from
03N20W, to 02N30W, crossing the Equator along 39W, to the
coastal sections of Brazil near 03S44W. Precipitation: isolated
moderate to locally strong from 07N southward between 14W and
35W, and from 04N to 06N between 45W and 47W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front has reached the coastal waters and coastal plains
of Texas. Precipitation: Broken to overcast multilayered clouds
and possible rainshowers are to the NW of the line that runs
from the Florida Big Bend to the coast of Mexico near 24N98W.

Weakening high pressure in the Gulf of Mexico will continue to
shift eastward through Tuesday night. The current Texas cold
front will reach from the Florida Panhandle to 26N93W and to the
far SW Gulf early on Tuesday; from Apalachicola, Florida to
25N92W and stationary to the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico by
Tuesday night, as a second and stronger cold front reaches the
Texas coast. Strong high pressure behind this front will allow
for the second front to accelerate southeastward reaching from
near Sarasota, Florida to inland the Yucatan Peninsula by
Wednesday afternoon; and to southeast of the area late on
Wednesday. Strong north gale-force winds will develop in the SW
Gulf on Wednesday; then continue in the waters near Veracruz and
the SW Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday night. Strong north winds
with frequent gusts to gale-force, and sea heights building to
large values, are expected in most of the waters elsewhere to
the west of the front on Wednesday and Wednesday night. High
pressure will settle into the area by the end of the week,
allowing for improving conditions.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front starts in the Atlantic Ocean at 21N58W, and
it continues to 19N63W. The front becomes dissipating stationary
at 19N63W, and it continues to 17N69W, just off the SE corner of
the Dominican Republic. Precipitation: Broken to overcast
multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers are in the
Caribbean Sea and in the Atlantic Ocean, from 14N to 22N between
55W and 83W.

A surface trough is along 19N59W 16N62W 11N65W, from the
Atlantic Ocean into the SE corner of the Caribbean Sea.220 nm to
the south of Jamaica, to the eastern coast of the Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico. Precipitation: broken to overcast
multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers are from 17N to 20N
between 55W and 60W in the Atlantic Ocean, and from 17N
southward between 60W and 70W in the Caribbean Sea.

24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that
ended at 25/0000 UTC, according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE
AND PRECIPITATION TABLES, MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC, are: 0.08 in
Guadeloupe.

The gradient that is associated with high pressure in the
western Atlantic Ocean will allow for strong northeast to east
winds to pulse off the coast of Colombian through Saturday
night. The gradient also will bring fresh to strong northeast to
east winds to the lee of Cuba and Hispaniola, and in the
Windward Passage through early Tuesday. A cold front will move
in the NW Caribbean Sea on Wednesday evening. The front will
reach from east central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras by Thursday
night; and then begin to weaken as it reaches from the Windward
Passage to the Honduras/Nicaragua border by Friday afternoon;
and from the central Dominican Republic to NW Haiti to 15N78W
and to the Nicaragua/Costa Rica border by late Saturday. Fresh
to strong northerly winds will follow behind this front mainly
in the NW Caribbean Sea through early Saturday, and in the far
western Caribbean Sea from 11N to 19N on Saturday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 32N49W, to 27N53W, to 21N58W. The
front becomes stationary at 21N58W, and it continues to 19N63W.
The front becomes dissipating stationary at 19N63W, and it
continues to 17N69W, just off the SE corner of the Dominican
Republic. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong is within 270 nm to the SE of the cold front from 20N
northward. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and possible
rainshowers are in the Caribbean Sea and in the Atlantic Ocean,
from 14N to 22N between 55W and 83W.

A 1015 mb low pressure center is about 660 nm to the WSW of the
Canary Islands, and about 330 nm to the NW of the Cabo Verde
Islands. The low pressure center has been weakening with time.
Expect strong to near-gale force winds on the northern side of
the circulation now. An upper level cyclonic circulation center
is near 26N24W, near the surface cyclonic center. Comparatively
drier air in subsidence is within 1400 nm of the upper level
cyclonic center in the SW semicircle. Dense Saharan dust has
been moving across the Atlantic Ocean, with the low center,
between the Canary Islands and 40W. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate from 25N to 28N between 18W and 24W. Isolated
moderate elsewhere from 20N to 30N between 24W and 38W.

Long-period north to northeast swell in the far SE waters will
continue to decay through Tuesday evening. Strong south to
southwest winds will develop off the N FL coast tonight in
advance of the next cold front. These winds will continue
through Tuesday evening, and then shift eastward while
diminishing through Wednesday. The front will move off the
southeastern U.S. coast on Wednesday; reach from near 31N76W to
the NW Bahamas and to central Cuba by late Wednesday night; from
31N72W to 24N75W and to east central Cuba on Thursday afternoon;
and begin to weaken as it reaches from 30N65W to 24N70W and to
northwestern Haiti on Friday afternoon. The front will reach the
far southeastern waters by Saturday night. Strong west to
northwest winds will follow the front through Thursday night.

$$
mt
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