[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 251144
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
705 AM EST Tue Feb 25 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1130 UTC.

...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...

A strong cold front is forecast to enter the NW Gulf of Mexico
on Tuesday night, and cover the Gulf of Mexico along a NE-to-SW
oriented line by Wednesday morning. Expect gale-force N winds
from 21N to 28N between 90W and 98W, behind the front.
Wind speeds as fast as 45 knots, with possible gusts to storm-
force, will affect the areas that are from 20N to 27N between
90W and 98W. Expect sea heights ranging from 10 feet to 18 feet,
from 20N southward from 95W westward, The conditions will begin
to improve into Thursday. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS
FORECAST: MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, the latest OFFSHORE FORECAST:
MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC, or go to the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, from the NWS
National Hurricane Center, for more details.

...HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL FROM SE MEXICO TO NORTHERN
HONDURAS...

It is likely that heavy rainfall may affect sections of
southeastern Mexico, central Guatemala, and northern Honduras,
behind a strong cold front, from Wednesday into Thursday. It is
possible that the rains may lead to flash flooding and
mudslides. The area with the greatest potential for significant
flooding and mudslides is in the northwestern and north central
parts of Honduras, from Wednesday night through Saturday night.
Localized flooding is possible in the southeastern parts of the
Mexican state of Veracruz and in the northern part of Chiapas,
and in central Guatemala, from Wednesday afternoon until
Thursday evening. Please monitor the latest forecasts from your
local or national meteorological service.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the Prime Meridian along 06N,
to 05N05W at the coast of Africa, to 0lN12W and 01N16W. The ITCZ
continues from 01N16W, to the Equator along 21W, to 02N26W, and
returning to the Equator along 34W. Precipitation: scattered
moderate to isolated strong within 125 nm to the south of the
monsoon trough between 02W and 06W. Widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong from 04N southward between 23W and 36W. Isolated
moderate to locally strong elsewhere to the south of the line
that runs from the coast of Africa near 10N14W to 08N30W and
08N60W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

The Texas coast cold front from 6 hours ago has weakened and
dissipated. A surface trough extends from SE Louisiana, to
29N92W in the NW corner of the Gulf of Mexico, to 25N95W.
Precipitation: Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and
possible rainshowers are to the NW of the line that runs from
the Florida Big Bend to the coast of Mexico near 20N97W.

A reinforcing front will move into the NW corner of the Gulf of
Mexico later today, and by tonight the stronger merged cold
front will stretch from the FL Panhandle to W Bay of Campeche by
this evening, then move SE of the Gulf by Wed night. Behind it,
strong gale-force winds will develop in much of the SW Gulf Wed
and continue into Wed night, with near storm-force NW winds
possible offshore Veracruz late Wed. For the remainder of the
Gulf, expect strong, near gale force, NW winds during this
period. Winds and associated seas will diminish Thu as high
pressure builds in, and by Fri, tranquil conditions will
dominate.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A dissipating stationary front starts in the Atlantic Ocean near
21N58W, across the islands that are just to the east of Puerto
Rico, to the SE corner of Puerto Rico, to 17N70W, about 90 nm to
the south of the SE part of the Dominican Republic.
Precipitation: Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and
possible rainshowers are in the Caribbean Sea and in the
Atlantic Ocean, from 15N to 22N between 55W and 82W.

A surface trough is along 18N60W 14N63W 10N65W, from the
Atlantic Ocean into the SE corner of the Caribbean Sea.
Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds and
possible rainshowers are from 16N to 20N between 54W and 60W in
the Atlantic Ocean, and from 18N southward between 60W and 70W
in the Caribbean Sea.

24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that
ended at 25/0000 UTC, according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE
AND PRECIPITATION TABLES, MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC, are: 0.08 in
Guadeloupe.

Tight pressure gradient between high pressure N and E of the
Caribbean and lower pressure toward the equator will keep strong
NE to E winds pulsing each night through the weekend off the
Colombian coast. This gradient will also create strong E winds S
of Hispaniola today. This front will move into the NW Caribbean
Wed evening, then stretch from E Cuba to E Honduras by Thu eve.
By the weekend, the front will stall from Hispaniola to Costa
Rica. Behind the front, fresh to strong N winds can be expected
throughout the week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A slowly-moving cold front passes through 32N49W, to 26N53W, to
21N58W. The front becomes dissipating stationary at 21N58W, and
it continues to 19N63W, into the Caribbean Sea across the
islands that are just to the east of Puerto Rico, to the SE
corner of Puerto Rico, to 17N70W, about 90 nm to the south of
the SE part of the Dominican Republic. Precipitation: scattered
moderate to isolated strong is within 135 nm to the SE of the
cold front from 26N northward. Isolated moderate is elsewhere
from 20N northward between 46W and 60 nm to the west of the cold
front. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and possible
rainshowers are in the Caribbean Sea and in the Atlantic Ocean,
from 15N to 22N between 55W and 82W.

A 1016 mb low pressure center is near 21N28W, about 650 nm to
the WSW of the Canary Islands, and about 300 nm to the NW of the
Cabo Verde Islands. The low pressure center has been weakening
with time. Expect strong to near-gale force winds on the
northern side of the circulation now. An upper level cyclonic
circulation center is near 26N24W, near the surface cyclonic
center. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is within 1400 nm
of the upper level cyclonic center in the SW semicircle. Dense
Saharan dust has been moving across the Atlantic Ocean, with the
low center, at least between the Canary Islands and 40W.
Precipitation: isolated moderate from 18N to 30N between
Africa and 40W.

Fresh to strong S flow in advance of a cold front will prevail N
of the Bahamas into Wed, when the front will move off the SE
U.S. coast. Behind the front, strong NW winds will occur Wed
night into Thu N of the Bahamas, when the front will reach a
Bahamas to E Cuba line. The front will slow down and stall into
the weekend from SE of Bermuda to Hispaniola. A reinforcing cold
front may bring strong NW winds to areas N of 25N this weekend.

$$
mt
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