[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 250012 CCA
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
712 PM EST Mon Feb 24 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...

A strong cold front enter the NW Gulf of Mexico Tuesday night and
move across the Gulf on Wednesday. Behind the front, gale force N
winds will affect much of the Gulf west of 90W, south of 29N.
Winds as high as 45 kt with possible gusts to storm force will
affect the SW Gulf of Mexico Wed afternoon. Expect seas of 12 to
16 ft south of 26N and west of 90W on Wed. Conditions will begin
to improve into Thursday. Please read the latest High Seas
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further
details.

...HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL SE MEXICO TO NORTHERN HONDURAS...

Heavy rainfall is likely to affect portions of southeastern
Mexico, central Guatemala and northern Honduras behind a strong
cold front later this week. The rains could lead to flash
flooding and mudslides. The area with greatest potential for
significant flooding and mudslides is over northwestern and
north-central portions of Honduras, Wed night through Sat night.
Elsewhere, localized flooding is possible over southeastern
portions of the Mexican state of Veracruz and northern Chiapas,
as well as central Guatemala, from Wed afternoon to Thu evening.
Please monitor the latest forecasts from your local or national
meteorological service.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Liberia from 05N09W
to 03N23W. The ITCZ continues from 03N23W to 02N50W. A cluster of
scattered moderate to strong convection is seen from 04S-05N
between 12W-18W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 24/2100 UTC, a weak cold front extends from Galveston Bay
to the Gulf of Mexico near 27N97W to McAllen Texas near 26N98W to
25N101W. Scattered moderate rainshowers are over the Gulf Coast
from the western Florida Panhandle to south-central Louisiana, and
over the Gulf of Mexico north of 29N between 85.5W-94W. High
pressure over the western Atlantic extends surface ridging over
the southern Gulf of Mexico.

The weak cold front currently just offshore the Texas coast will
reach from near Apalachicola, Florida to near 25N92W and
stationary to the central Bay of Campeche by Tue night, as a much
stronger cold front reaches the Texas coast. This strong cold
front will accelerate southeastward, reaching from near Sarasota,
Florida to the Yucatan Peninsula by Wed afternoon and southeast of
the Gulf basin late Wed. Northerly gale force winds will develop
over the much of the western Gulf early Wed, then continue over
the waters near Veracruz and eastern Bay of Campeche Wed evening.
Seas will build to large values over the southwest Gulf Wed. High
pressure will settle in over the area by the end of the week
allowing for improving conditions.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front extends from 20N61W to 18N66W, dissipating to
16N72W. Isolated showers are near and north of the front,
including over Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. A surface trough
extending from 18N60W to 11N64W is bringing isolated showers to
portions of the Lesser Antilles and the Caribbean east of 65W. An
ASCAT pass from Monday morning showed strong NE winds in the
Windward and Mona Passages, as well as the waters south of
Hispaniola, and near the coast of N Colombia.

Strong NE to E winds will pulse off the Colombian coast through
Sat night. Fresh to strong NE to E winds are expected to the lee
of Cuba and Hispaniola as well as over the Windward Passage
through early Tue. A cold front will move over the northwestern
Caribbean Wed evening, reach from east-central Cuba to the Gulf
of Honduras by Thu night, then begin to weaken as it reaches from
the Windward Passage to the border between Honduras and Nicaragua
by Fri afternoon. Fresh to strong northerly winds will follow in
behind this front mainly over the northwest Caribbean through
early Sat and over the far western Caribbean from 11N to 19N Sat.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A central Atlantic cold front extends from 32N52W to 23N56W to
18N65W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm behind and
120 nm ahead of the front, mainly north of 22N and east of 55W.
Farther southwest, isolated showers are near and within 90 nm
north of the front, including near Puerto Rico. Over the W
Atlantic, high pressure ridging prevails, due to a 1024 mb high
near 34N68W. Farther east, a 1014 mb surface low near 24N27W
continues to produce 25-30 kt E winds from 25N-32N between 22W-
35W, but the low is expected to continue weakening on Tuesday. An
upper-level low nearly co-located with the surface low is helping
to induce thunderstorms from 25N-28N between 19W-24W. Enhanced
Saharan dust continues to affect the eastern Atlantic between the
Canary Islands and 35W.

The central Atlantic cold front will slowly move E across the
Virgin Islands tonight and dissipate west of 60W by Tue night.
Strong S to SW winds will develop off the north FL coast tonight
in advance of the next cold front. These winds will continue
through Tue evening, then diminish through Wed. The front will
move off the southeastern U.S. coast on Wed, reach from near
31N72W to 24N75W to east-central Cuba Thu afternoon and begin to
weaken as it reaches from near 30N65W to 24N70W to NW Haiti Fri
afternoon. Strong W to NW winds will follow the front through Thu
night, mainly north of 27N and west of 73W.

$$
Hagen
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