[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 201734
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1234 PM EST Thu Feb 20 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1720 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gale Warnings are in effect for portions of the Gulf of Mexico
and western Atlantic Ocean. Please read the latest High Seas
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details
on the three special features mentioned below.


...ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE WARNING...

A slow moving cold front is off the N Florida coast and moving
across the western Atlantic. As the front progresses eastward,
gale force winds are expected to develop along both sides of the
front by 21/0000 UTC N of 30N. Seas are expected between 12 to 17
ft. Gale force sustained winds will end by Friday night but
frequent gusts up to gale force will continue behind the front
over the next few days.

...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...

A slow moving cold/stationary front stretches from Louisiana near
29N91W to the coast of Mexico near 20N97W. Gale force winds are
forecast for 21/0000 UTC Thursday evening, S of 24N and W of
front. Seas will be 10-17 ft. The gale force wind event is
expected to persist through Friday night.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near
07N11W to 04N15W. The ITCZ extends from 04N15W to 02N26W to the
coast of Brazil near 02S43W. Widely scattered moderate convection
is along the ITCZ from 05S-03N between 15W- 40W. There is an area
of scattered thunderstorms along the monsoon trough from 04N-06N
and E of 14W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from the central Louisiana coast near 29N91W
to a 1019 mb low near 26N96W. The front stalls south of this low
to another 1019 mb low near 22N97W and then to the coast of Mexico
near 21N97W. In the northeast Gulf, a warm front is slowly
lifting north toward the Florida coast from 30N85W to 28N83W. A
trough is in the Bay of Campeche from 23N95W to 18N94W. Widely
scattered showers are seen across the northern Gulf along the
coastline from Texas to northern Florida. Showers are also off the
Mexican coast along and N of the front. Isolated showers are
moving northward in the eastern Gulf along the central and
southern Florida coast. The latest scatterometer data depicts
strong northerly winds behind the cold front and gentle to
moderate winds across the rest of the basin. Behind the front,
seas are being reported between 3 to 7 ft.

The front will begin to accelerate its motion today and move
across the remainder of the Gulf through Fri afternoon. Gale
conditions are expected over the offshore waters of Tampico coast
early Fri, and over the offshore waters of Veracruz Fri and Fri
night. Frequent gusts to gale force are expected over the NW Gulf
and N central Gulf tonight. Strong north to northeast winds are
expected elsewhere behind the front with building seas. Seas will
subside Sat and Sun. A second cold front will move into the NW
Gulf Mon night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Mid to upper-level ridging extends across the northwest Caribbean
with upper-level troughing digging over the Lesser Antilles.
Scattered showers are moving across the Lesser Antilles in
addition to Hispaniola and Puerto Rico. Showers are also noted
moving across Jamaica eastward to Honduras northward into the
Yucatan. The latest scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong
trades across the eastern and central Caribbean and gentle to
moderate trades in the NW Caribbean. Seas 9-12 ft are seen north
of Colombia, with 3-6 ft across the rest of the basin.

High pressure north of the area will support fresh to strong
winds across the central Caribbean today. Winds will pulse to
minimal gale force near the coast of Colombia tonight. Winds and
seas will diminish across the Caribbean and the Tropical N
Atlantic through Fri. A cold front in the Gulf of Mexico will
reach the Yucatan Channel Fri, and move across the NW Caribbean
through Sat night followed by fresh to strong north winds. The
gradient associated with high pressure that will build north of
the front will support fresh to strong northeast winds in the
Windward passage and near Cuba Sun night and Mon.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends across the NW Atlantic waters from
31N72W to the coast of Florida near 28N81W. A 1020 mb low is seen
along this front near 29N80W. Showers are seen along the front.
Otherwise, high pressure extends across the rest of the basin
anchored by a 1036 mb high near 43N25W. The latest scatterometer
data depicts moderate to fresh winds north of the stationary
front. Fresh to strong NNE winds are seen in the eastern Atlantic,
N of 11N and E of 48W.

A cold front extending from just west of Bermuda to inland
central Florida near Cape Canaveral will push southeastward across
the rest of the forecast waters through Sat night. Near gale to
gale force winds are expected on both sides of the front tonight
through Fri night. Winds and seas will gradually diminish across
the region Sat and Sun.

$$
AKR
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