[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 201123
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
623 AM EST Thu Feb 20 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gale Warnings are in effect for portions of the Caribbean Sea,
Gulf of Mexico and western Atlantic Ocean. Please read the latest
High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details
on the three special features mentioned below.

...CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING...

Gale-force winds are along the coast of N Colombia. Winds will be
below gale force on 20/1200 UTC Thursday. Seas are 11-16 ft.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE WARNING...

A slow moving cold front is off the N Florida coast. This front
will speed up across the NW Atlantic waters Thursday night. Gale
force winds are expected N of 30N on 21/1800 UTC Friday evening.
Seas will reach 18 ft.

...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...

A slow moving cold front currently extends from N Florida near
29N83W to a 1017 mb low over the NW Gulf near 28N95W to Tampico
Mexico near 22N98W. Gale force winds are forecast for 21/0600 UTC
Thursday night, S of 24N and W of front. Seas will be 9-11 ft.
The gale is expected to persist for 24 hours.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near
08N12W to 04N17W. The ITCZ extends from 04N17W to 01N30W to the
coast of Brazil near 03S43W. Isolated moderate convection is S of
the monsoon trough from 02N-07N between 05W-20W. Widely scattered
moderate convection is along the ITCZ from 04N-08S between 20W-
48W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A slow moving cold front currently extends from N Florida near
29N83W to a 1017 mb low over the NW Gulf near 28N95W to Tampico
Mexico near 22N98W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the
front. 20 kt N winds are N of the front. The remainder of the Gulf
has 10-15 kt SE winds with mostly fair weather.

Reinforcing cold air will push the cold front in the northern
Gulf across the remainder of the basin through Fri. Gale
conditions are expected over the offshore waters of Tampico Mexico
Thu night, and the offshore waters of Veracruz Mexico Fri and Fri
evening. Strong north to northeast winds are expected elsewhere
behind the front with building seas. Seas will subside Sat and
Sun. A second cold front will move into the NW Gulf Mon night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Gale-force winds along the coast of N Colombia will end shortly
on 20/1200 UTC. 10-30 kt tradewinds are over the remainder of the
Caribbean Sea with weakest winds over the Yucatan Channel.
Clusters of scattered showers are moving W with the tradewinds, S
of 20N. Upper level ridging with strong subsidence is suppressing
all deep convection.

High pressure north of the area will support fresh to strong
winds across the central Caribbean today. Winds and seas will
diminish across the Caribbean and the Tropical N Atlantic through
Fri. A cold front in the Gulf of Mexico will reach the Yucatan
Channel Fri, and move across the NW Caribbean through Sat night
with fresh to strong N winds. High pressure building north of the
front will support fresh to strong winds in the Windward passage
and near Cuba Sun night and Mon.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

As of 20/0900 UTC, a cold front is off the N Florida coast from
31N72W to 29N81W. A prefrontal trough extends from 29N79W to
27N80W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the front and of
the trough. A 1034 mb high is centered over the Azores near
40N29W. An upper level trough axis extends from 30N50W to 16N60W.
Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the trough axis.

Reinforcing cold air will push a strong cold front across the
forecast area tonight through Sat night. Near gale to gale force
winds are expected on both sides of the front Thu night through
Fri night. Winds and seas will gradually diminish across the
region Sat and Sun.

$$
Formosa
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