[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 202340
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
640 PM EST Thu Feb 20 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2320 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gale Warnings are in effect for portions of the Gulf of Mexico,
Caribbean and western Atlantic Ocean. Please read the latest High
Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details
on the special features mentioned below.

...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...

A cold front extends from Pensacola Florida to 26N94W to the
coast of Mexico just north of Tuxpan near 21N97W. Gale force
winds are forecast to develop off Tampico Mexico tonight by
21/0600 and last there into Friday morning. Gales will develop
offshore of Veracruz Mexico early Friday morning and persist there
into Friday evening. Elsewhere across much of the western and
northern Gulf of Mexico, winds near 30 kt are expected tonight
through at least Friday morning behind the front. Seas of 12 to 15
ft are expected in the SW Gulf of Mexico Friday and Friday night.

...WEST ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE WARNING...

A cold front extends from 33N77W to Daytona Beach Florida. The
front will move SE and gain strength tonight. Near gale force
winds are expected on both sides of the front through Fri night,
with northerly gales likely on Friday N of 29N between 74W-80W,
following the frontal passage. Sea heights of 12 to 18 feet are
expected. Gale force winds will end by Friday night, but NE winds
of near gale-force will continue through Saturday behind the
front, to the east of the Bahamas.

...SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING...

Gale force winds are expected off the coast of Colombia this
evening and overnight. Winds will diminish below gale force prior
to sunrise Friday.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the border of Liberia and Sierra
Leone near 07N11W to 04N16W. The ITCZ extends from 04N16W to
01N30W to the coast of Brazil near 03S40W. Isolated to scattered
moderate convection is from 01N-05N between 09W-31W. Scattered
moderate convection is from 14S-05N between 31W-53W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 20/2100 UTC, a 1016 mb low is just E of Pensacola near
30N87W. A strong cold front extends from the low to 26N94W to the
coast of Mexico just north of Tuxpan near 21N97W, then inland
along the mountains of Mexico. A warm front extends E from the
weak low near 30N87W to Tallahassee to Daytona Beach Florida.
Scattered moderate rainshowers are over the Florida Panhandle and
the Gulf waters north of 29N and east of 89W. Isolated lighter
showers are elsewhere over the northern Gulf. The latest surface
observations indicate 20 to 30 kt N to NE winds behind the cold
front, north of 26N off the coasts of Texas and western Louisiana.

The cold front will move SE across the Gulf of Mexico through
Fri, then exit the basin by Fri night. Gale conditions are
expected over the offshore waters off the coast of Tampico early
Fri, and over the offshore waters off Veracruz Fri and Fri night.
Near gale force winds are expected over the NW Gulf tonight behind
the front. Strong N to NE winds and building seas are expected
elsewhere behind the front. Seas will subside across the Gulf this
weekend. Another cold front will move across the western Gulf Mon
night through Tue night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Mid-level ridging extends across the western Caribbean. Relatively
dry air covers the basin. Strong trades are over the central
Caribbean. High pressure north of the area will support fresh
to strong winds across the central Caribbean tonight, with winds
expected to pulse to minimal gale force near the coast of Colombia
tonight. Winds and seas will diminish across the southern Caribbean
Fri through the weekend. A Gulf of Mexico cold front will reach
the Yucatan Channel late Fri and move across the NW Caribbean
through Sat night, followed by fresh to strong northerly winds.
High pressure building behind the front will support fresh to
strong NE winds in the Windward Passage and near Cuba Sun into
Mon.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from a 1013 mb low near 33N77W to a weak
1015 mb low near Daytona Beach Florida. A warm front extends from
the low near 33N77W to 31N72W to 32N69W. Isolated to scattered
showers are seen north of 29N and west of 78W. Strong N winds are
north of 30N, between the cold front and the coast of Georgia and
northern Florida. The 1013 mb low near 33N77W will move NE and
pull a strong cold front across the forecast waters tonight
through this weekend. Near gale force winds are expected on both
sides of the front through Fri night, with northerly gales likely
N of 29N following the frontal passage in the vicinity of the
Gulf Stream. Large N swell associated with this system will
propagate southward across the waters toward the SE Bahamas and
Puerto Rico through the weekend, then gradually subside early next
week. Large N swell will also propagate between the Bahamas and
South Florida Friday afternoon through Sat. Most of the western
Atlantic west of 65W will see very large significant wave heights
for a portion of the time between Friday and Sunday. Check the
Offshore Forecasts for additional information.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic basin, a surface trough is currently
along 51W from 12N-23N. Isolated showers are within 90 nm of the
trough axis from 17N-22N. Farther E, a cold front extends from
32N12W to 31N20W to 32N26W. Cloudiness and isolated showers
accompany the front.

$$
Hagen
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