[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 150600
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
100 AM EST Sat Feb 15 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0540 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning...

The current forecast, starting at 15/0000 UTC, consists of:
NE-to-E gale-force winds, and sea heights ranging from 8 feet to 9
feet, from 11N to 12N between 74W and 75.5W. The gale-force winds
are forecast to continue for the next 18 hours or so. A recent
altimeter pass and buoy observations showed a large area of seas
between 8-11 ft covering the eastern and central sections of the
Caribbean Sea. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast, under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, the latest Offshore
Waters Forecast, under MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC, or go to the
website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more
details.

...Western Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning...

A cold front passes through 32N69W, to a 1019 mb low pressure
center that is near 30N73W, to south Florida, and into the Gulf of
Mexico near 25N84W. The 12-hour forecast, starting at 15/0000 UTC,
consists of: N-to-NE gale-force winds, and sea heights ranging
from 9 feet to 14 feet, from 30N to 31N between 72W and 75W. The
gale-force winds are expected to last for 12 hour or so. Please
read the latest High Seas Forecast, under the AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, the latest Offshore Waters Forecast under
MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC, or go to the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough remains over land. The ITCZ is along 01S17W
03S22W 02S27W 03S35W 01S46W, to Brazil near 01S50W. Precipitation:
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 04N to 01S
between 21W and 31W. Isolated moderate elsewhere from 05N
southward from South America eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front passes extends from a 1019 mb low pressure center
that is near 30N73W, to south Florida, and into the Gulf of Mexico
near 25N84W. The front becomes stationary near 25N84W, and it
curves to 24N90W, and to 18.5N92W in the SW corner of the Gulf of
Mexico. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds and
isolated moderate to the south of the line that runs from 29N95W
at the coast of Texas, to 28N90W, to 29N along the west coast of
Florida.

The current stationary front will dissipate on Saturday, in the
far SE Gulf. High pressure will build in the wake of this front,
and prevail through early next week. The next cold front will move
into the NW Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A middle level to upper level cyclonic circulation center is near
17N64W. Cyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea, parts of
South America, and parts of the Atlantic Ocean from 06N to 24N
between 56W and 72W. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is
apparent in water vapor imagery, everywhere in the Caribbean Sea,
on the western side of the cyclonic circulation center, and within
300 nm of the center to the north. Precipitation: isolated
moderate is within 180 nm of the center in the NE quadrant.
Rainshowers are possible elsewhere, from 07N to 20N between 50W
and 65W, in parts of the Caribbean Sea and the Atlantic Ocean.

Rainshowers are possible, in areas of broken low level clouds,
with the trade wind flow.

24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that
ended at 15/0000 UTC, according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE
AND PRECIPITATION TABLES, MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC, are: 0.11 in
Curacao, and 0.09 in Guadeloupe.

High pressure to the north of the area will maintain strong trade
winds across the central Caribbean Sea through Wednesday. The
wind speeds will pulse to gale-force each night off the coast of
Colombia. The trade winds in the tropical Atlantic Ocean will
diminish slowly through Saturday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 32N69W, to a 1019 mb low pressure
center that is near 30N73W, to south Florida, and into the Gulf of
Mexico near 25N84W. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered
clouds and isolated moderate are within 120 nm to the E and SE of
the cold front, and within 215 nm to the NW of the cold front.

A stationary front passes through 32N38W, to 30N41W, to 27N47W.
Precipitation: rainshowers are possible from 25N northward between
30W and 55W.

An upper level trough extends from a 31N17W cyclonic circulation
center, to a 24N27W, to 19N36W. Comparatively drier air in subsidence
is apparent in water vapor imagery, from 17N to 26W between 20W
and 55W. A surface trough is along 20N18W 25N21W 30N22W. No
significant deep convective precipitation is apparent in satellite
imagery.

The current cold front will move SE, before stalling and
dissipating, from near Bermuda to the central Bahamas on Sunday
and Sunday night. Gale-force wind conditions are expected well
to the NE of the Bahamas on Saturday. High pressure will build in
the wake of the front. The next cold front will move into the NW
waters during the middle of the next week.

$$
MT
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net