[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 151102
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
601 AM EST Sat Feb 15 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1040 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning...

The current forecast, starting at 15/0600 UTC, consists of:
NE-to-E gale-force winds, and sea heights ranging from 11 feet to
15 feet, from 10.5N to 13N between 74W and 78W. The gale-force
winds are forecast to continue for the next 6 hours or so. The
overall forecast is for the wind speeds to be pulsing to gale-
force during the evening and early morning hours, for the next few
days. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast, under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, the latest Offshore Waters
Forecast, under MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC, or go to the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

...Western Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning...

A cold front passes through 32N65W just to the east of Bermuda,
to 30N70W, across the NW Bahamas, to south Florida near 25N81W,
and into the Gulf of Mexico near 25N85W. The 6-hour forecast,
starting at 15/0600 UTC, consists of: N-to-NE gale-force winds,
and sea heights ranging from 9 feet to 14 feet, from 30N to 31N
between 72W and 75W. The gale-force winds are expected to last for
12 hours or so. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast, under
the AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, the latest Offshore
Waters Forecast under MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC, or go to the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through Nigeria near 06N04E, along the
southern coast of the Ivory Coast, through southern sections of
Liberia, to 04N12W. A surface trough is along 03N16W to the
Equator along 22W. One part of the ITCZ is along 02N10W, crossing
the Equator along 13W, to 03S20W and 03S26W. Another part of the
ITCZ is along 02S27W 02S30W 03S33W 03S36W. Precipitation:
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 04N to 02S
between 18W and 31W. Isolated moderate to locally strong from 01N
to 05S between the Prime Meridian and 20W. Isolated moderate is
elsewhere from 06N southward from South America eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front passes across the NW Bahamas, to south Florida near
25N81W, and into the Gulf of Mexico near 25N85W. The front
becomes stationary near 25N85W, and it curves to 23N90W, and to
18.5N92W in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation:
broken to overcast multilayered clouds and isolated moderate,
nearly everywhere in the Gulf of Mexico, except in the area that
is from 28N northward from 90W eastward.

The current stationary front will dissipate later today, in the
far SE Gulf. High pressure will build in the wake of this front,
and prevail through early next week. The next cold front will move
into the NW Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A middle level to upper level cyclonic circulation center is near
17N65W. Cyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea, parts of
South America, and parts of the Atlantic Ocean from 06N to 24N
between 55W and 72W. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is
apparent in water vapor imagery, everywhere in the Caribbean Sea,
on the western side of the cyclonic circulation center, and from
300 nm to 600 nm to the north of the center. Precipitation:
isolated moderate is within 440 nm of the center in the NE
quadrant. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere, from 07N to 20N
between 50W and 67W, in parts of the Caribbean Sea and the
Atlantic Ocean.

Rainshowers are possible, in areas of broken low level clouds,
with the trade wind flow.

24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that
ended at 15/0000 UTC, according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE
AND PRECIPITATION TABLES, MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC, are: 0.11 in
Curacao, and 0.09 in Guadeloupe.

High pressure to the north of the area will maintain strong trade
winds across the central Caribbean Sea through Wednesday. The
wind speeds will pulse to gale-force each night off the coast of
Colombia. The trade winds in the tropical Atlantic Ocean will
diminish slowly through tonight.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 32N65W just to the east of Bermuda,
to 30N70W, across the NW Bahamas, to south Florida near 25N81W,
and into the Gulf of Mexico near 25N85W. Precipitation: broken to
overcast multilayered clouds and isolated moderate are within 60
nm to the E and SE of the cold front, and within 270 nm to the NW
of the cold front.

A surface trough is along 70W/71W, from the Dominican Republic at
20N, to 25N. Rainshowers are possible, in trade wind flow, moving
near and around the trough. No significant deep convective
precipitation is apparent in satellite imagery, just with the
surface trough by itself.

An upper level trough extends from a 30N17W cyclonic circulation
center, to a 23N25W cyclonic circulation center, to 18N30W, to
16N40W. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in
water vapor imagery, from 16N to 25W between 25W and 50W. A
surface trough is along 08N16W 17N18W 23N19W. No significant deep
convective precipitation is apparent in satellite imagery.

The current cold front will move eastward, across the northern
waters of the forecast areas, through tonight. The front will
stall, and then dissipate, to the east of the central Bahamas on
Sunday. Gale-force wind conditions are expected well to the NE of
the Bahamas today, lasting for about 12 hours today. High
pressure will build across the region on Monday and Tuesday.
The next cold front will move into the NW waters in the middle of
next week.

$$
MT
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