[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

EMWIN Server emwin at nashvilleweather.net
Fri Feb 14 17:52:57 CST 2020


AXNT20 KNHC 142352
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
652 PM EST Fri Feb 14 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...West Atlantic Gale Warning...

A cold front extends from a 1018 mb low near 30N77W to Central
Florida. Gale-force winds are expected to develop NE of the
Bahamas by early Sat as the front moves east. These conditions
will continue through Sat night. Please read the latest High Seas
Forecast product, under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC,
the latest Offshore Waters Forecast product under MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23
KNHC, or go to the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

...Caribbean Gale Warning...

High pressure north of the area will remain in place and maintain
strong trades across the central Caribbean through the forecast
period, except for gale force winds pulsing each night off the
Colombian coast. A recent altimeter pass and buoy observations
showed a large area of seas between 8-11 ft covering the eastern
and central Caribbean. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast
product, under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, the latest
Offshore Waters Forecast product under MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC, or
go to the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml,
for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough remains over land. The ITCZ extends from
03S11W to 01S47W. Scattered showers are noted within 75 nm on
either sides of the ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends across the basin from 28N83W to 24N91W
to 18N93W. A pre-frontal trough extends from 27N82W to 24N89W.
Scattered showers are noted along the front and trough. High
pressure is building in the western Gulf. The latest scatterometer
data depicts moderate to fresh NNE winds behind the front, while
light to gentle winds prevail ahead of the boundary.

The stationary front will dissipate Sat over the far SE Gulf.
High pressure will build in the wake of this front and prevail
through early next week. The next cold front will move into the NW
Gulf Tue night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the Special Features section above for details on the
Gale Warning, currently in effect near the coast of Colombia.

A mid to upper-level low near 15N65W is producing showers with
isolated thunderstorms across the far eastern Caribbean, including
the Lesser Antilles. Mid to upper-level ridging extends across
the western Caribbean. The latest scatterometer data depicts
strong to near gale winds north of Colombia, while moderate to
fresh trades cover the remainder of the basin. The most recent
altimeter pass and buoy data shows sea heights ranging between
8-11 ft for the eastern two-thirds of the basin.

Strong high pressure north of the area will maintain strong trade
winds across the central Caribbean through Wed, pulsing to gale
force each night off the coast of Colombia. Fresh to strong winds
will continue in the Windward Passage and the Gulf of Honduras
through tonight.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warning,
currently in effect for the west Atlantic area.

A cold front extends from a 1018 mb low near 30N77W to Central
Florida. A trough south of the front is noted from 28N78W to
26N80W. Showers are noted near these features. The latest
scatterometer data depicts moderate northerly winds in the far
western Atlantic. To the east, a 1024 mb surface high is centered
near 29N53W. The tail end of a cold front extends east of this
high from 31N39W to 27N49W with scattered showers. Widespread
showers are moving across the Cabo Verde Islands and adjacent
waters, with a surface trough extending from 32N19W to 15N18W.

The front will move SE before stalling and dissipating from near
Bermuda to the central Bahamas Sun and Sun night. Gale conditions
are expected well NE of the Bahamas on Sat. High pressure will
build in the wake of the front. The next cold front will move into
the NW waters the middle of next week.

$$

ERA
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