[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141744
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1244 PM EST Fri Feb 14 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1720 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Caribbean Gale Warning...

High pressure north of the area will remain in place and maintain
strong trades across the central Caribbean through the forecast
period, except for gale force winds pulsing each night off the
Colombian coast. A recent altimeter pass and buoy observations
showed a large area of seas between 8 and 11 ft covering the
eastern and central Caribbean.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast product, under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, the latest Offshore Waters Forecast
product under MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC, or go to the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The western terminus of the monsoon trough reaches the coast of
Liberia near 05N08W. The ITCZ extends from 04S17W to 01S31W to
the coast of Brazil near 01S47W. Scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection is noted within an area from 06S-04N between
12W-46W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

At 14/1500 UTC, a cold front extended south of Tampa Bay, Florida
near 31N76W to 26N87W. The front stalls from 26N87W to 23N92W to
the coast of Mexico near 19N93W. A pre-frontal trough is along the
front from 27N83W to 25N89W. A trough is also seen in the Bay of
Campeche from 23N90W to 19N92W. Showers are noted along the front.
High pressure is building in the western Gulf. The latest
scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh NNE winds behind the
front with light to gentle winds ahead of the boundary. Moderate
winds are noted in the NW Gulf.

The cold front will continue to stall today. The front will
dissipate by Sat over the far SE Gulf and strong NW winds will
diminish. High pressure will build in the wake of this front.


CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the Special Features section above for details on the
Gale Warning, currently in effect near the coast of Colombia.

A mid to upper-level low near 15N65W is producing showers with
isolated thunderstorms across the far eastern Caribbean, including
the eastern Leeward Antilles, the Lesser Antilles and westward
into Puerto Rico. Mid to upper-level ridging extends across the
western Caribbean. The latest scatterometer data depicts strong to
near gale winds north of Colombia. Strong trades cover the rest
of the central Caribbean. Fresh trades are seen throughout the
eastern and SW Caribbean with moderate trades in the NW Caribbean.
The most recent altimeter pass and buoy data indicated seas
running 8 to 11 ft for the eastern two-thirds of the basin.

Strong high pressure north of the area will maintain strong trade
winds across the central Caribbean through Wed, pulsing to gale
force each night off the coast of Colombia. Fresh to strong winds
will continue in the Windward Passage and the Gulf of Honduras
today. Trades over tropical Atlantic waters will slowly diminish
through Sat.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

At 14/1500 UTC, a cold front continues to sink south and extends
from 31N76W to 29N81W. A trough south of the front is noted from
29N77W to 27N80W. Showers are near these boundaries. The latest
scatterometer data depicts moderate northerly winds in the far
western Atlantic.

In the central Atlantic, a cold front is analyzed from 31N40W to
29N48W with isolated showers near it. In response to an upper
trough approaching the NW African coast, a surface trough is noted
from 30N20W to 15N18W. Widespread showers are moving across the
Cabo Verde Islands eastward to Mauritania, Western Sahara, and
Morocco. The rest of the basin is dominated by ridging from a 1027
mb high near 29N55W and a 1026 mb high near 30N36W.

A cold front off the NE Florida coast will move SE toward the NW
Bahamas Sat. Gale conditions are possible well NE of the Bahamas
on Sat. The cold front will then gradually dissipate from SE of
Bermuda into the central Bahamas Sun and Sun night, and winds
will subside. High pressure will build in in the wake of the
front.

$$
AKR
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