[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 131735
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1235 PM EST Thu Feb 13 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Caribbean Gale Warning...

Strong high pressure north of the area will maintain strong
trades across the central Caribbean through the forecast period,
except for gale force winds pulsing each night off the Colombian
coast. A recent altimeter pass showed seas to 14 ft over the south
central Caribbean W of 77W.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast product, under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, the latest Offshore Waters Forecast
product under MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC, or go to the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

...Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning...

A cold front extends from the western Florida Panhandle to 24N94W,
then becomes stationary to just S of Tuxpan, Mexico. The cold
front will reach from Apalachee Bay to near 25N90W and to the
south-central Bay of Campeche by this evening, then begin to
weaken as it reaches from Tampa, Florida to near 24N90W and to the
eastern Bay of Campeche early Fri and weaken further as it moves
across the rest of eastern and SE Gulf Fri night. Northerly winds
will reach minimal gale force west of the front off Veracruz late
this afternoon into tonight, with seas building to 12 or 13 ft.
Fresh to strong northerly winds are expected elsewhere W of front
through Fri. A band of showers with embedded tstms is noted in
association with the front, but mainly N of 27N. Abundant
cloudiness with possible showers is seen elsewhere W of the
front. High pressure will build in the wake of the front, then
shift eastward and weaken through early next week.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast product, under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, the latest Offshore
Waters Forecast product under MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC, or go to the
website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends SW from the SE coast of Liberia to
04N10W. The ITCZ continues from 04N10W to 01N25W to the coast of
Brazil near 03S44W. Scattered moderate convection is from 00N to
04N between 07W and 20W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is from 00N to 03N between 32W and 38W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on
the Gale Warning, currently in effect for the southwest Gulf of
Mexico.

High pressure over the Atlantic Ocean extends a ridge across
Florida into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Moderate to locally fresh
southerly winds are noted along the western periphery of the ridge
and ahead of the front. The high will slowly shift eastward
during the next couple of days as the frontal boundary nudges E
across the Gulf. Weak low pressure may move from W to E across the
far northern Gulf Sat night through Sun night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the Special Features section above for details on the
Gale Warning, currently in effect near the coast of Colombia.

Recent scatterometer data provide observations of fresh to strong
trade winds across the east and central Caribbean, particularly
from 11N to 18N E of 80W. An altimeter pass indicate seas to near
10 ft over the eastern part of the basin, and seas to 14 ft over
the central Caribbean. Strong high pressure north of the area will
maintain strong trades across the central Caribbean over the next
several days. Fresh to strong trades will continue over the
Windward Passage and in the Gulf of Honduras through Fri. Fresh
trades over the tropical Atlantic waters will diminish to mainly
moderate speeds on Sat.

Patches of low level moisture embedded in the trade wind flow will
move across the region producing isolated to scattered passing
showers.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The Atlantic Ocean is dominated by a broad surface ridge, anchored
by a couple of high pressure systems centered SE of Bermuda near
29N62W and NE of the Madeira Islands near 35N12W. Scatterometer
data indicate moderate to fresh trade winds across the southern
periphery of the ridge over the tropical northern Atlantic waters.
Fresh to strong winds are blowing across the regional waters of
Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. Fresh to strong southerly winds are
also observed off of north and central Florida between the
Atlantic ridge and a cold front over the SE CONUS.

The high pressure over the area will retreat eastward through
this evening with the approach of cold front that is presently
over the southeastern U.S. This front will move across the far NW
waters of the SW N Atlantic tonight, and over the remainder of
the northern waters through Sat before dissipating over the
central waters Sat night into Sun. High pressure will build in the
wake of the front. A coastal trough is expected to develop off
the northeast Florida coast on Sat. The trough may transition to a
weak cold front late Sun night and dissipate by Mon night.

Interesting observation of the day, the GOES16 RGB Geocolor
imagery shows very dense African dust over the far eastern
Atlantic. Surface reports from west Africa and the Cabo Verde
Islands are currently indicating dust or blowing dust. Satellite
imagery also shows the northern edge of the African dust reaching
the Canary Islands.

$$
GR
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