[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 132352
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
651 PM EST Thu Feb 13 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Caribbean Gale Warning...

Strong high pressure north of the area will maintain strong
trades across the central Caribbean through the forecast period,
except for gale force winds pulsing each night off the Colombian
coast. A recent altimeter pass showed seas to 14 ft over the south
central Caribbean W of 77W.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast product, under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, the latest Offshore Waters Forecast
product under MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC, or go to the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

...Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning...

A cold front extends across the basin from 30N85W to 26N90W to
19N95W. The front will reach from Tampa, Florida to near 24N90W
and to the eastern Bay of Campeche by early Fri and weaken
further as it moves across the rest of eastern and SE Gulf through Fri
night. Northerly winds will reach gale-force west of the front
off of Veracruz by 00Z tonight, with seas building to 13 ft in
this area. These conditions will continue through early Fri.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast product, under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, the latest Offshore
Waters Forecast product under MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC, or go to the
website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends SW from the coast of Africa near 07N12W
to 06N13W. The ITCZ continues from 03N13W to the coast of Brazil
near 01S45W. Scattered moderate convection is noted south of 04N
between 29W-45W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on
the Gale Warning, currently in effect for the southwest Gulf of
Mexico.

A cold front extends from the Florida panhandle to the
Bay of Campeche. Latest scatterometer data depicts fresh to
strong northerly winds north of the front, while moderate to fresh
southerly winds prevail south of the front. The front will shift
across the Gulf and weaken across the SE Gulf Fri night. High
pressure in the wake of the front will shift eastward and weaken
through early next week. A weak low pressure center may move from
W to E across the far northern Gulf this weekend enhancing
winds/seas.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the Special Features section above for details on the
Gale Warning, currently in effect near the coast of Colombia.

Recent scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong trade winds
across the basin. An altimeter pass indicate seas to near 10 ft
over the eastern part of the basin, and seas to 14 ft over the
central Caribbean. Strong high pressure north of the area will
maintain these conditions over the next several days. Patches of
low level moisture embedded in the trade wind flow will move
across the region producing scattered passing showers.

Strong high pressure ridging north of the area will
maintain strong trades across the central Caribbean through the
forecast period, pulsing to gale force each night off the coast of
Colombia through Tue. Fresh to strong trades will continue over
the Windward Passage and in the Gulf of Honduras through Fri.
Fresh trades over the tropical Atlantic waters will diminish to
mainly moderate speeds Sat.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The whole basin is dominated by a broad surface ridge, anchored
by a couple of high pressure systems centered near 29N57W and
near 29N38W. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh trade
winds across the southern periphery of the ridge over the tropical
northern Atlantic waters. Fresh to strong winds are blowing
across the regional waters of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. Fresh to
strong southerly winds are also observed off of north and central
Florida between the Atlantic ridge and a cold front over the SE
CONUS.

A cold front will move into the far NW waters tonight. The front
will shift eastward over the remainder of the northern waters
through Sat before dissipating over the central waters Sat night
into Sun. High pressure will build in the wake of the front. A
coastal trough is expected to develop off the northeast Florida
coast on Sat. The trough may transition to a weak cold front late
Sun night and dissipate by Mon night.

Interesting observation of the day, the GOES16 RGB Geocolor
imagery continues to depict very dense African dust over the far
eastern Atlantic. Surface reports from west Africa and the Cabo
Verde Islands are currently indicating dust or blowing dust.

$$

ERA
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