[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 131042
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
542 AM EST Thu Feb 13 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...South-Central Caribbean Gale Warning...

Persistent ridging over the western Atlc will maintain a tight
pressure gradient over the Caribbean through at least the middle of
next week. The tight pressure gradient will continue to support
gale-force winds each night along the Caribbean coast of Colombia
south of 12N between 74W and 76W.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast product, under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, the latest Offshore Waters Forecast
product under MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC, or go to the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

...Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning...

A nearly stationary front extends across the NW Gulf from just SE
of Lafayette to just SE of Tampico Mexico. The front is pausing
ahead of a secondary push of cold air that will arrive by sunrise
this morning. This will cause the front to resume moving SE across
the Gulf and reach the SE Gulf by Sat morning. Winds will reach
gale force west of the front along the coast of Mexico near
Veracruz Thu night as winds funnel down the coast just E of the
Sierra Madre Oriental. The front will stall again Sat, then
gradually weaken over the south- central and SE Gulf through Sun
night, as high pressure builds in its wake. Please read the latest
High Seas Forecast product, under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, the latest Offshore Waters Forecast product
under MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC, or go to the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends SW from the SE coast of Liberia near
05N08W to 04N14W. The ITCZ continues from 04N14W to 00N29W to the
coast of Brazil near 04S38W. Scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection is present within 45 nm either side of a line
from 02.5N06W to 01.5N18W...within 45 nm either side of a line
from 02S10W to 02S24W and within an area bounded by 10S35W to
04S30W to 01N30W to 04N35W to 00N40W to 10S35W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please refer to the special features section above for details on
the Gale Warning, currently in effect for the southwest Gulf of
Mexico.

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are found along and
up to 30 nm E of the front N of 27N. Patchy light rain is present
along and up to 120 nm NW of the front. Moisture overrunning the
front from the SW is promoting extensive cloudiness over all of
the Gulf W of the front. Patchy dense fog will affect the coastal
waters between the Mouth of the Mississippi and the Florida
Coastal Bend until it mixes out later this morning. Light to
moderate SE winds persist across the basin with the exception of W
of the fronts, where fresh to strong N to NW winds were seen, and
in the south- central Gulf where fresh to strong winds due to a
tight pressure gradient ahead of the front are evident. Otherwise,
deep layer ridging was maintaining fair weather over the basin.

High pressure still resides over the central and eastern Gulf,
The high will slowly shift eastward during the next couple of days
as the frontal boundary nudges E across the Gulf. Winds will
reach gale force west of the front off Veracruz on Thu and Thu
night. High pressure will build SE over the Gulf from the southern
United States in the wake of the front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the special features section above for details on the
Gale Warning, currently in effect for the south-central Caribbean.

Fresh to strong E to SE trade winds cover much of the basin,
except moderate to fresh winds N of 18N to the west of the
approach to the Windward Passage. Strong mid to upper-level
subsidence over the basin will suppress strong convection across
the basin for the next couple of days.

Strong high pressure ridging north of the area will maintain
strong trades across the central Caribbean through the forecast
period, except for gale force winds pulsing each night off the
Colombian coast. Fresh to strong trades will continue over the
Windward Passage through Fri. Fresh trades over the tropical
Atlantic waters will diminish to mainly moderate speeds Sat.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The basin is dominated by a broad surface ridge, anchored by
dual high pressure systems centered SE of Bermuda near 28N60W and
SE of the Azores near 35N16W. Scatterometer data shows the ridge
is supporting moderate to fresh trade winds across the tropical
northern Atlantic, south of 24N and east of 60W. Winds north of
Hispaniola will be fresh the next couple of days, except on the
approach to the Windward Passage, where winds will be strong.

High pressure over the area will retreat E and enable a cold
front to move off the SE coast of the United States this evening.
The front will move SE across the area but become nearly
stationary in the vicinity of 25N as it pushes E into the western
Atlc Sat and Sun. High pressure will build over the waters N of
the front during this time frame.

$$
CAM
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