[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 130517
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1217 AM EST Thu Feb 13 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0430 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...South-Central Caribbean Gale Warning...

Persistent ridging over the western Atlc will maintain a tight
pressure gradient over the Caribbean through at least the middle of
next week. The tight pressure gradient will continue to support
gale-force winds each night along the Caribbean coast of Colombia
south of 12N between 74W and 76W.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast product, under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, the latest Offshore Waters Forecast
product under MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC, or go to the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

...Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning...

A nearly stationary frontal boundary extends across the NW Gulf
from near Lafayette Louisiana to near Tampico Mexico. The front is
pausing ahead of a secondary push of cold air that will arrive
later this morning. This will cause the front to resume moving SE
across the Gulf and reach the SE Gulf by Sat morning. Winds will
reach gale force west of the front along the coast of Mexico near
Veracruz Thu night as winds funnel down the coast just E of the
Sierra Madre Oriental. The front will stall again Sat, then
gradually weaken over the south-central and SE Gulf through Sun
night, as high pressure builds in its wake. Please read the latest
High Seas Forecast product, under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, the latest Offshore Waters Forecast product
under MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC, or go to the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends SW from the coast of Liberia near
06N10W to 04N14W. The ITCZ continues from 04N14W to 01N25W to the
coast of Brazil near 02S42W. Scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection is present within an area bounded by 07S34W to
04S28W to 01N29W to 03N36W to 00N40W to 07S34W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please refer to the special features section above for details on
the Gale Warning, currently in effect for the southwest Gulf of
Mexico.

Extensive cloudiness and patchy light rain are evident N of the
front described above. Patchy dense fog will affect the coastal
waters between the Mouth of the Mississippi and the Florida
Coastal Bend until it mixes out later this morning. Light to
moderate SE winds persist across the basin with the exception of W
of the fronts, where fresh to strong N to NW winds were seen, and
in the south-central Gulf where fresh to strong winds due to a
tight pressure gradient ahead of the front are evident.
Otherwise, deep layer ridging was maintaining fair weather over
the basin.

High pressure still resides over the central and eastern Gulf,
The high will slowly shift eastward during the next couple of days
as the frontal boundary nudges E across the Gulf. Winds will
reach gale force west of the front off Veracruz on Thu and Thu
night. High pressure will build SE over the Gulf from the southern
United States in the wake of the front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the special features section above for details on the
Gale Warning, currently in effect for the south-central Caribbean.

Fresh to strong E trade winds cover much of the basin, except
moderate to fresh winds N of 18N to the west of the approach to
the Windward Passage. Scattered moderate convection is streaming
across the U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. Strong
mid to upper-level subsidence over the basin will suppress strong
convection across the basin for the next couple of days.

Strong high pressure ridging north of the area will maintain
strong trades across the central Caribbean through the forecast
period, except for gale force winds pulsing each night off the
Colombian coast. Fresh to strong trades will continue over the
Windward Passage through Fri. Fresh trades over the tropical
Atlantic waters will diminish to mainly moderate speeds Sat.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The basin is dominated by a broad surface ridge, anchored by
elongated high pressure centered SE of the Azores near 34N23W.
Scatterometer data shows the ridge is supporting moderate to
fresh trade winds across the tropical northern Atlantic, south of
24N and east of 60W. Winds north of Hispaniola will be fresh the
next couple of days, except on the approach to the Windward
Passage, where winds will be strong.

High pressure over the area will retreat E and enable a cold
front to move off the SE coast of the United States Thu evening.
The front will move SE across the area but become nearly
stationary in the vicinity of 25N as it pushes E into the western
Atlc Sat and Sun. High pressure will build over the waters N of
the front during this time frame.

$$
CAM
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