[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 130004
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
704 PM EST Wed Feb 12 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...South-Central Caribbean Gale Warning...

A tight pressure gradient will continue to support gale-force
winds each night through Sun night along the Caribbean coast of
Colombia south of 12N between 74W and 76W.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast product, under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, the latest Offshore Waters Forecast
product under MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC, or go to the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

...Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning...

A slow moving cold front in the NW Gulf analyzed along a 1010 mb
low pressure near 27N94W then continuing into the coast of Mexico
near 22N97W. The front will progress eastward later this evening,
then cross the basin through Fri evening. Winds will reach gale
force west of the front along the coast of Mexico near Veracruz
Thu night. The front will re-stall and gradually weaken over the
south-central and SE Gulf Fri night, as high pressure builds in
its wake. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast product, under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, the latest Offshore
Waters Forecast product under MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC, or go to the
website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends southwest from the coast of Liberia
near 04N08W to 04N11W, with a surface trough extends from 04N12W
to 00N14W. The ITCZ begins west of the trough near 02N15W to south
of the equator to the coast of Brazil near 02S41W. Scattered
showers are in the vicinity of the ITCZ from the Equator to 03N
between 13W-37W.


GULF OF MEXICO...

Refer to the special features section above for details on the
Gale Warning, currently in effect for the southwest Gulf of
Mexico.

Extensive cloudiness and patchy light rain are evident N of the
front described above, with patchy dense fog across the northern
Gulf coastal and offshore waters ahead of the front mainly west
of 90W. Light to moderate SE winds persist across the basin with
the exception of W of the fronts, where fresh N to NW winds were
seen, and in the south-central Gulf where a patch of fresh to
strong winds due to a locally tight pressure gradient are evident.
Otherwise, deep layer ridging was maintaining fair weather over
the basin.

High pressure is present over the central and eastern Gulf, while
low pressure of 1010 mb is over the NW Gulf near 27N95W with a
cold front to Tampico, Mexico. High pressure will shift eastward
through this afternoon as the low pulls off to the north to inland
northeastern Texas and the cold front slowly moves across the
western Gulf. The front will shift eastward across the Gulf
waters before stalling and weakening over the SW Gulf Fri and Fri
night. Winds will reach gale force west of the front off Veracruz
on Thu and Thu night. High pressure will build in the wake of the
front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the special features section above for details on the
Gale Warning, currently in effect for the south-central Caribbean.

Fresh to strong easterly trade winds across much of the basin,
except moderate to fresh N of 18N to the west of the approach to
the Windward Passage. Scattered moderate convection is streaming
across the U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. Strong
mid to upper-level subsidence over the basin will suppress strong
convection across the basin for the next couple of days.

Strong high pressure ridging north of the area will maintain
strong trades across the central Caribbean through the forecast
period, except for gale force winds pulsing each night off the
Colombian coast. Fresh to strong trades will continue over the
Windward Passage through Fri. Fresh trades over the tropical
Atlantic waters will diminish to mainly moderate speeds Sat.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The basin is dominated by a broad surface ridge, anchored by
elongated high pressure north of the area. Scatterometer data
shows this ridge is supporting moderate to fresh trade winds
across the tropical northern Atlantic, south of 24N and east of
60W. Winds north of Hispaniola will be fresh the next couple of
days, except on the approach to the Windward Passage, where winds
will be strong.

High pressure over the area will retreat eastward enabling a cold
front to move off the southeastern coast of the United States Thu
evening. The front will move southeastward across the area
through Sat before dissipating over the central waters Sat night
into Sun. High pressure will build in the wake of the front.

$$
Torres
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