[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101749
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1249 PM EST Mon Feb 10 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING...

The surface pressure gradient will continue tightening along the
coast of N Colombia during this evening and overnight, to produce
gale-force winds and seas of 11-14 ft south of 12N between 74W-77W.
These conditions will subside by Monday morning, then gale winds
will develop again Mon night through Tue morning. Please read the
latest High Seas Forecast product, under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, the latest Offshore Waters Forecast product
under MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC, or go to the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the southern coastal sections of
Liberia near 04N11W to 02N20W. The ITCZ continues from 02N20W, to
02S42W, to the coastal sections of Brazil near 02S42W. Scattered
moderate convection is seen from 02S-06N between 01W-19W, and
near the ITCZ from 04N-02n between 23W-44W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Upper level SW-to-W wind flow spans the entire Gulf of Mexico.
A surface ridge extends from the NE Gulf of Mexico into the SW
corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Surface anticyclonic wind flow
spans the Gulf of Mexico with ASCAT data indicating moderate
to fresh east to southeasterly winds.

High pressure centered offshore of the Carolinas will extend SW
across the basin through the early part of the week. A cold front
will stall along the TX coast Tue and Wed, before moving into the
NW Gulf Wed evening. The cold front is expected to move across
the Gulf Wed night through late Fri, and will likely bring gale
conditions off Veracruz on Thu. The front will stall and gradually
weaken over the S central and SE Gulf Fri and Fri night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warning,
currently in effect for the south-central Caribbean.

Latest scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh easterly
trade winds across most of the basin, except south of 13N
between 71W-77W, where fresh to strong winds prevail. Scattered
low-topped showers are quickly moving across the basin with these
winds, mainly east of 80W.

A strong high pressure ridge will maintain strong tradewinds
across the central Caribbean through the period. Winds will pulse
to gale force each night off the Colombia coast through the week,
and pulse to strong across the Gulf of Honduras and the approach
to the Windward Passage. Fresh to locally strong trades will also
dominate the tropical Atlantic waters.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends into the area of discussion near 31N59W
and continues to 27N70W to 24N78W. Scattered showers are noted
along and east of the front. Fresh easterly winds are occurring
within 300 nm SE of the front. The remainder of the basin is
dominated by a broad ridge with a 1036 mb high centered near
32N36W. This ridge is supporting fresh to strong trade winds
across most of the tropical northern Atlantic, E of 60W.

A stationary front will drift NW and weaken today then dissipate
tonight. Strong high pressure centered W of the Azores will build
westward to Florida by the middle of the week to maintain a strong
Atlantic ridge. The high will weaken somewhat late Wed and Thu as
a cold front approaches the SE U.S. coast. A strong cold front is
expected to move off the SE U.S. coast Thu night, and sink
southward across the NW waters through Fri night.

$$
MMTorres
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