[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 102323
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
623 PM EST Mon Feb 10 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING...

The surface pressure gradient will continue tightening along the
coast of N Colombia during this evening and overnight, to produce
gale-force winds and seas of 11-14 ft south of 12N between 74W-77W.
These conditions will subside by Tue morning, then gale winds
will develop again Tue night through Wed morning. Please read the
latest High Seas Forecast product, under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, the latest Offshore Waters Forecast product
under MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC, or go to the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the southern coastal sections of
Africa near 07N11W to 04N18W. The ITCZ continues from 04N18W, to
02S40W. Scattered showers are noted within 45 nm on either sides
of the ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends across the basin with fair weather.
Moderate to fresh anticyclonic winds prevails across the Gulf
waters, as noted in latest scatterometer data.

High pressure will prevail across the basin through mid-week. A
cold front will stall along the TX coast Tue and Wed, before
moving into the NW Gulf by Wed evening. The cold front is
expected to move across the Gulf Wed night through late Fri, and
will likely bring gale conditions off of Veracruz on Thu. The
front will stall and gradually weaken over the S central and SE
Gulf on Fri.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warning,
currently in effect for the south-central Caribbean.

Latest scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh easterly
trade winds across most of the basin, except south of 13N
between 71W-77W, where fresh to strong winds prevail. Scattered
low-topped showers are quickly moving across the basin with these
winds, mainly east of 80W.

The strong high pressure ridge N of the area will maintain strong
tradewinds across the central Caribbean through the forecast period,
except for gale force winds pulsing each night off the Colombia
coast. Fresh to strong winds will pulse at night across the Gulf
of Honduras and the approach to the Windward Passage through Wed
night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends across the western Atlantic from into
the area of discussion near 31N59W and continues to 29N70W to
26N78W. Scattered showers are noted along the front. Fresh
easterly winds are noted within 300 nm SE of the front. The
remainder of the basin is dominated by a broad surface ridge,
anchored by a 1034 mb high centered near 38N15W. This ridge is
supporting fresh to strong trade winds across most of the tropical
northern Atlantic, E of 60W.

The stationary front will dissipate tonight. Strong high pressure
centered W of the Azores will build westward to Florida by the
middle of the week to maintain a strong Atlantic ridge. The high
will weaken and shift E late Wed ahead of a cold front expected to
move off the SE U.S. coast Thu evening. Fresh to strong southerly
winds will affect the NW waters Wed night through Thu. The front
will move SE across the area through Sat before dissipating N of
Puerto Rico at night.

$$

ERA
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