[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101132
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
705 AM EST Mon Feb 10 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1110 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING...

The current forecast, valid at 10/0600 UTC, consists of NE-to-E
gale-force winds, and sea heights ranging from 10 feet to 15
feet, from 11N to 12N between 74W and 77W, along the coast of
Colombia. The gale-force winds will last for the next 9 hours or
so. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST: MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC, the latest OFFSHORE FORECAST: MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC, or go
to the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml,
from the NWS National Hurricane Center, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of
Liberia near 05N09W, to 05N13W and 04N15W. The ITCZ continues
from 04N15W, to 02N20W, 01N28W, crossing the Equator along 28W,
to the coastal sections of Brazil near 03S39W. Precipitation:
isolated to widely scattered moderate and isolated strong from
07N southward from 50W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Upper level SW-to-W wind flow spans the entire Gulf of Mexico.
A surface ridge extends from the NE Gulf of Mexico into the SW
corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Surface anticyclonic wind flow
spans the Gulf of Mexico.

High pressure, centered offshore of the Carolinas, will extend
SW across the Gulf of Mexico through the early part of the week.
A cold front will stall along the TX coast on Tuesday and
Wednesday, before moving into the NW Gulf on Wednesday night.
The cold front is expected to move through the Gulf from
Thursday into Friday. It is possible that the cold front may
bring gale-force wind conditions to the waters that are offshore
Veracruz Mexico during this time. It is possible that the front
may stall and weaken gradually in the S central and SE Gulf by
the end of the week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Precipitation: rainshowers are possible in broken low level
clouds, in trade wind flow, across the entire area.

Comparatively drier air in subsidence in water vapor imagery
covers the Caribbean Sea, from 18N southward from 84W eastward.
The drier air covers inland areas of Central America and South
America, from Honduras to Panama, and from Colombia to Guyana.

24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that
ended at 10/0000 UTC, according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE
AND PRECIPITATION TABLES, MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC, are:
0.14 in Guadeloupe, and 0.13 in Curacao.

High pressure, building in the central Atlantic Ocean, will
induce strong trade winds in the central Caribbean Sea. Gale-
force winds will be pulsing each night off the coast of Colombia
through the week. Fresh to locally strong trade winds also will
dominate the tropical Atlantic Ocean waters. The winds also will
pulse to fresh to locally strong in the Gulf of Honduras and
in the approach to the Windward Passage.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front passes through 32N58W, to 29N63W, 28N67W,
26N70W, 23N73W, to the central Bahamas, and to 22N77W between
the Bahamas and Cuba. Precipitation: isolated moderate within
570 nm to the east of the stationary front from 20N northward.
24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that
ended at 10/0000 UTC, according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE
AND PRECIPITATION TABLES, MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC, are: 0.04 in
Bermuda.

An upper level trough passes through 30N45W to 15N49W, to the
coast of Guyana. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is
apparent in water vapor imagery from 17N southward between 45W
and 60W.

An upper level trough is digging in West Africa, from northern
Algeria, to NE Mauritania, to Guinea-Bissau. Comparatively drier
air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery on the
western side of the trough, within 450 nm of the coast of
Africa, from 11N to 28N.

The current stationary front will weaken today, and dissipate
tonight. Strong high pressure, centered to the W of the Azores,
will build westward to Florida by the middle of the week, in
order to maintain a strong Atlantic Ocean ridge. The high
pressure will weaken somewhat late on Wednesday and Thursday, as
a cold front approaches the SE U.S.A. coast. It is likely that a
more significant cold front may move off the SE U.S.A. coast on
Thursday night, sagging southward through Friday night.

$$
MT
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