[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 100524
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1224 AM EST Mon Feb 10 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0510 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING...

The current forecast, valid at 10/0000 UTC, consists of NE gale-
force winds, and sea heights ranging from 10 feet to 12 feet,
from 11N to 12N between 74W and 76W, along the coast of Colombia.
The gale-force winds will last for the next 15 hours or so.
Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST: MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC,
the latest OFFSHORE FORECAST: MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC, or go to the
website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, from the
NWS National Hurricane Center, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W to 03N24W. The ITCZ continues from 03N24W, to
the Equator along 32W, to the coastal sections of Brazil near
03S40W. Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate and
isolated strong from 05N southward from 50W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Upper level SW-to-W wind flow spans the entire Gulf of Mexico.
A surface ridge extends from the NE Gulf of Mexico into the SW
corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Surface anticyclonic wind flow
spans the Gulf of Mexico.

High pressure, centered in the Carolinas, will extend SW across
the Gulf of Mexico through the early part of the week. A cold
front will stall along the TX coast on Tuesday and Wednesday,
before moving into the NW Gulf on Wednesday night. The cold front
is expected to move through the Gulf from Thursday into Friday.
It is possible that the cold front may bring gale-force wind
conditions to the offshore waters of Veracruz Mexico during this
time.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Precipitation: rainshowers are possible in broken low level
clouds, in trade wind flow, across the entire area.

Comparatively drier air in subsidence in water vapor imagery
covers the Caribbean Sea, from 18N southward from 84W eastward.
The drier air covers inland areas of Central America and South
America, from Honduras to Panama, and from Colombia to Guyana.

24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that
ended at 10/0000 UTC, according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE
AND PRECIPITATION TABLES, MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC, are:
0.14 in Guadeloupe, and 0.13 in Curacao.

High pressure, building in the central Atlantic Ocean, will
induce strong trade winds in the central Caribbean Sea. Gale-
force winds will be pulsing each night off the coast of Colombia
into the next weekend. Fresh to locally strong trade winds also
will dominate the tropical Atlantic Ocean waters.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front passes through 31N61W, to 27N70W, to the
central Bahamas, to 23N77W between the Bahamas and Cuba. near
23N84W. Precipitation: isolated moderate within 750 nm to the east
of the stationary front from 22N northward. 24-hour rainfall
totals that are listed for the period that ended at 10/0000 UTC,
according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION
TABLES, MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC, are:
0.04 in Bermuda.

An upper level trough passes through 30N44W to 14N51W, to the
coast of Guyana. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent
in water vapor imagery from 16N southward between 45W and 60W.

An upper level trough is digging in West Africa, from northern
Algeria, to NE Mauritania, to Senegal. Comparatively drier air in
subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery on the western side
of the trough, within 360 nm of the coast of Africa, from 13N to
26N.

The current stationary front will weaken on Monday, and dissipate
on Monday night. Strong high pressure, centered to the W of the
Azores, will build westward to Florida by the middle of the week,
in order to maintain a strong Atlantic Ocean ridge. The high
pressure will weaken somewhat late on Wednesday and Thursday, as
a cold front approaches the SE U.S.A. coast. It is likely that a
more significant cold front may move off the SE U.S.A. coast on
Thursday night.

$$
MT
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