[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 092341
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
641 PM EST Sun Feb 9 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...

The surface pressure gradient will continue tightening along the
coast of N Colombia during this evening and overnight, to produce
gale-force winds and seas of 11-13 ft south of 12N between 74W-
77W. These conditions will subside by Mon morning, then gale
winds will develop again by Mon night through Tue morning. Please
read the latest High Seas Forecast product, under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, the latest Offshore Waters Forecast
product under MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC, or go to the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends along the coast of Africa from 06N10W
to 03N20W. The ITCZ continues from that point to the coast of
South America near 02S45W. Scattered showers are noted within 75
nm on either sides of the ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Moderate to fresh anticyclonic winds prevail across the basin, as
a surface ridge extends over the area. A weakening stationary
front extends from the southwestern Atlantic to the Florida
Straits along 23N. Scattered showers are noted along the boundary.

The high pressure will shift ENE into the Atlantic. A cold front
will move into the western Gulf by mid-week, and reach from the
Florida Big Bend region to central Bay of Campeche by Thu night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warning,
currently in effect for the south-central Caribbean.

Latest scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh easterly winds
across most of the basin, except south of 12N between 73W-77W,
where fresh to strong winds prevail. Scattered low-topped showers
are quickly moving across the basin with these winds, mainly east
of 80W.

High pressure building in the central Atlantic will continue
inducing strong tradewinds across the central Caribbean, with
gales pulsing each night off the Colombia coast through the week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends into the area of discussion near 31N64W
and continues to 25N71W to 23N80W. Scattered showers are noted
along and east of the front. Fresh northeasterly winds are
occurring within 300 n mi NE of the front. The remainder of the
basin is dominated by a broad ridge with a 1037 mb high centered
near 33N36W. This ridge is supporting fresh to strong trade winds
across most of the tropical northern Atlantic, E of 60W.

The stationary front will weaken through Mon and dissipate by Mon
night. Strong high pressure centered W of the Azores will build
westward to Florida by the middle of the week to maintain a strong
Atlantic ridge. The high will weaken somewhat by mid-week as a
cold front approaches the SE U.S. coast. Looking ahead, a more
significant cold front may move off the SE U.S. coast on Thu
night.

$$
ERA
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