[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091736
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1236 PM EST Sun Feb 9 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1600 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...

The surface pressure gradient will tighten along the coast of N
Colombia during the evening and nighttime hours to produce gale-
force winds and seas of 11-13 ft. The gale is forecast to start
by 10/0300 UTC and persist until 10/1200 UTC. Similar conditions
will return by 11/0000 UTC and end by 11/1200 UTC. Please read the
latest High Seas Forecast product, under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, the latest Offshore Waters Forecast product
under MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC, or go to the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends along the coast of Africa from 05N00W
to 05N10W and continues over the Atlantic to 03N20W. The ITCZ
continues from that point to 00N30W to the coast of South America
near 03S43W. Isolated moderate convection is noted from 03S-01N
between 30W-42W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Moderate to fresh easterly to southeasterly winds prevail over the
basin, around high pressure centered over the Mid-Atlantic region
of the United States. A weakening stationary front extends from
the southwestern Atlantic to the Florida Straits near 24N82W to
23N85W. Scattered showers are indicated by Key West radar within
60 n mi of this front.

The area of high pressure will extend SW across the basin through
the early part of the week as the high shifts ENE into the Atlantic.
A cold front will move into the western Gulf Wed, and reach from
the Florida Big Bend region to central Bay of Campeche Thu night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warning,
currently in effect for the south-central Caribbean.

The same strong pressure gradient supporting the gale is
producing fresh to strong east to northeast winds across much of
the central Caribbean. Moderate easterly trade winds prevail
across the remainder of the Caribbean, except locally fresh in the
Lee of Cuba and the Windward Passage. Other than some patches of
showers, the Caribbean basin is devoid of convection.

Strong high pressure will shift E off the middle Atlantic coast
of the U.S. this afternoon and tonight and then slide ENE across
the NW Atlantic through mid week to maintain a strong Atlantic
ridge. Strong tradewinds across the central Caribbean will pulse
to gale force off the Colombian coast each night through the week.
Fresh to strong tradewinds will dominate the Tropical Atlantic
waters throughout the week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends into the area of discussion near 31N63W
and continues to 25N73W to the Florida Straits. Showers and
isolated thunderstorms are within 90 n mi of the front E of 67W.
Scattered showers are within 60 n mi of the front W of 67W. Fresh
northeasterly winds are occurring within 300 n mi NE of the front.
The remainder of the basin is dominated by a broad ridge with a
1039 mb high centered near 32N34W. This strong ridge is supporting
fresh to strong trade winds across most of the tropical northern
Atlantic, E of 60W.

The stationary front will meander and gradually dissipate through
Mon. Strong high pressure centered W of the Azores will build
westward to Florida by the middle of the week to maintain a strong
Atlantic ridge. The high will weaken somewhat late Wed and Thu as
a cold front approaches the SE U.S. coast.

$$

ASL
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